{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TL731KTQP9",
  "slug": "kxrecogpalestine-27",
  "question": "Will any country recognize Palestine before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "palestine-recognition",
    "international-diplomacy",
    "geopolitical-recognition",
    "middle-east-politics",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether each named country formally recognizes Palestinian statehood before January 2027. All 13 contracts are country-specific binary outcomes on a single platform, structured as independent yes/no questions per jurisdiction. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution, referencing ABC News reporting on formal recognition acts. Resolution occurs at 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z; traders should note that diplomatic recognition timing can be contested or procedurally ambiguous near the deadline.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HYW636T270",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.065,
    "implied_probability": 0.065
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M241VZZ989",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TL731KTQP9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-ITA",
      "question": "Who will recognize Palestine?",
      "description": "Italy",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Italy: Kalshi staff determination, based on reporting from ABC News, whether the named country formally recognizes the referenced outcome by January 1, 2027, 3 PM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Italy recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOfficial diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to:\n\n- A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state\n- Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level\n- Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates)\n- Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations\n- An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty\n- A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister\n\nThe following do **NOT** constitute recognition:\n\n- Trade relations or commercial agreements alone\n- Consular relations without diplomatic relations\n- Participation in the same international conference\n- Humanitarian assistance or aid\n- Cultural or educational exchanges\n- Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities)\n- Statements of \"support\" without formal recognition\n- De facto cooperation without formal recognition\n- Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred\n- Parliamentary resolutions without executive action\n\n**For clarity:** recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge. Withdrawal of recognition from a competing entity is not required. Votes in UN bodies do not constitute recognition unless accompanied by bilateral recognition.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://ft.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1840.0536000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "italy",
        "recognition"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "bucket": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-68J5GJ50X8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TL731KTQP9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-GRE",
      "question": "Who will recognize Palestine?",
      "description": "Greece",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Greece: Kalshi staff determination, based on reporting from ABC News, whether the named country formally recognizes the referenced outcome by January 1, 2027, 3 PM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://ft.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 422.88,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "greece",
        "recognition"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-862HNYPBQ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TL731KTQP9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-USA",
      "question": "Who will recognize Palestine?",
      "description": "USA",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "USA: Kalshi staff determination, based on reporting from ABC News, whether the named country formally recognizes the referenced outcome by January 1, 2027, 3 PM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States of America recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOfficial diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to:\n\n- A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state\n- Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level\n- Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates)\n- Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations\n- An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty\n- A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister\n\nThe following do **NOT** constitute recognition:\n\n- Trade relations or commercial agreements alone\n- Consular relations without diplomatic relations\n- Participation in the same international conference\n- Humanitarian assistance or aid\n- Cultural or educational exchanges\n- Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities)\n- Statements of \"support\" without formal recognition\n- De facto cooperation without formal recognition\n- Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred\n- Parliamentary resolutions without executive action\n\n**For clarity:** recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge. Withdrawal of recognition from a competing entity is not required. Votes in UN bodies do not constitute recognition unless accompanied by bilateral recognition.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
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            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://ft.com/",
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            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.018,
      "implied_probability": 0.018,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "country",
        "recognition",
        "usa"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JZ7CJH9M14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TL731KTQP9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-FIN",
      "question": "Who will recognize Palestine?",
      "description": "Finland",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Finland: Kalshi staff determination, based on reporting from ABC News, whether the named country formally recognizes the referenced outcome by January 1, 2027, 3 PM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Finland recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOfficial diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to:\n\n- A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state\n- Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level\n- Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates)\n- Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations\n- An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty\n- A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister\n\nThe following do **NOT** constitute recognition:\n\n- Trade relations or commercial agreements alone\n- Consular relations without diplomatic relations\n- Participation in the same international conference\n- Humanitarian assistance or aid\n- Cultural or educational exchanges\n- Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities)\n- Statements of \"support\" without formal recognition\n- De facto cooperation without formal recognition\n- Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred\n- Parliamentary resolutions without executive action\n\n**For clarity:** recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge. Withdrawal of recognition from a competing entity is not required. Votes in UN bodies do not constitute recognition unless accompanied by bilateral recognition.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
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          },
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            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "Politico",
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
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            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
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          }
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        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.079,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.158,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "country",
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        "recognition"
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          "bucket": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QMKCTCGSX1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TL731KTQP9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-AUS",
      "question": "Who will recognize Palestine?",
      "description": "Austria",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Austria: Kalshi staff determination, based on reporting from ABC News, whether the named country formally recognizes the referenced outcome by January 1, 2027, 3 PM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Austria recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nOfficial diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to:\n\n- A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state\n- Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level\n- Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates)\n- Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations\n- An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty\n- A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister\n\nThe following do **NOT** constitute recognition:\n\n- Trade relations or commercial agreements alone\n- Consular relations without diplomatic relations\n- Participation in the same international conference\n- Humanitarian assistance or aid\n- Cultural or educational exchanges\n- Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities)\n- Statements of \"support\" without formal recognition\n- De facto cooperation without formal recognition\n- Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred\n- Parliamentary resolutions without executive action\n\n**For clarity:** recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge. Withdrawal of recognition from a competing entity is not required. Votes in UN bodies do not constitute recognition unless accompanied by bilateral recognition.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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