{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
  "slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
  "question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "iran-politics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "reza-pahlavi",
    "diplomatic-recognition",
    "regime-change"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the United States government will formally recognize Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by end of 2026. A single Kalshi binary contract prices the outcome, resolving via Kalshi staff determination. No structural cross-platform contrast exists; only one market is listed. Resolution follows the 2027-01-01 settlement timestamp.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-117GY3GJK2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.067,
    "implied_probability": 0.067
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-117GY3GJK2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26",
      "question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination of whether the United States government has officially recognized Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader before January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran. Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "foreign ministry of country_1",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "government and foreign ministry of country_2",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "government of country_1",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "head of government of country_1",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "head of state of country_1",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://semafor.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "foreign ministry of country_1",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.067,
      "implied_probability": 0.067,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.43716,
      "volume_total_usd": 65083.5052,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "reza pahlavi",
        "united states recognition",
        "us foreign policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}