{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1",
  "slug": "kxrecssnber-26",
  "question": "Will the United States enter a recession this year?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-economy",
    "recession-prediction",
    "2027",
    "macroeconomic-indicator",
    "economic-downturn"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether the U.S. economy enters a recession in 2026. Kalshi prices a binary outcome, resolving if the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination against BEA official data releases. The market closes January 31, 2027, after full-year 2026 data becomes available.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Q2KPGKG5R5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q2KPGKG5R5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRECSSNBER-26",
      "question": "Will there be a recession in 2026?",
      "description": "Starts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Economic Analysis announces 2026 real GDP growth data, with recession defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-31T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3010.7168,
      "volume_total_usd": 242560.4152,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2FB03D51D4",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-2R0FDQP7J6",
          "price": 0.11
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "recession",
        "us economy",
        "us recession"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}