{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZFFL0TDP3",
  "slug": "kxrecssnber-27",
  "question": "Will there be a recession in 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "recession",
    "macroeconomics",
    "economic-downturn",
    "gdp-contraction",
    "2027-outlook"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the U.S. economy enters a recession in 2027. Kalshi staff determine resolution based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing two consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform insight applies. Resolution is expected by January 31, 2028.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RMBYW0DF14",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.43,
    "implied_probability": 0.43
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RMBYW0DF14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZFFL0TDP3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRECSSNBER-27",
      "question": "Will there be a recession in 2027?",
      "description": "Yes",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Bureau of Economic Analysis determines whether real GDP contracted for two consecutive quarters during 2027.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-31T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.\n\nGDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.\n\nThe market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "volume_24h_usd": 187.91,
      "volume_total_usd": 27771.2748,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-76FF003EE6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "macroeconomics",
        "recession",
        "us recession"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PZFFL0TDP3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}