{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-018V10RKK3",
  "slug": "kxrobotaxiarea-26dec",
  "question": "Which states will robotaxi be offered in by 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "robotaxi-deployment",
    "us-state-expansion",
    "autonomous-vehicles",
    "geographic-coverage",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These five Kalshi markets track whether Tesla's robotaxi service launches to the general public in five U.S. states before January 1, 2027. Each market is structurally identical in format but prices a distinct regulatory and operational jurisdiction: Arizona, Nevada, Florida, California, and Georgia. Together they form a cross-state probability surface for Tesla's autonomous vehicle rollout timeline. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination of public availability in each named state.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5183RCYK74",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.9,
    "implied_probability": 0.9
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PTDT32C6V1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-018V10RKK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-AZ",
      "question": "Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Arizona before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Arizona",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Arizona: Kalshi staff determination of whether the referenced autonomous vehicle service became available to general public consumers in the named state, based on Bloomberg reporting, by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla robotaxi service is offered to the general public in Arizona before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor \"offered to\": Tesla has launched a robotaxi service in Arizona that satisfies ALL of the following criteria:\n\nThe service allows members of the general public to request rides through a publicly accessible application or platform (not limited to Tesla employees, beta testers, or invite-only participants)\nThe vehicles operate without any human driver or safety monitor physically present in the driver's seat who is actively controlling the vehicle during normal operation\nThe service charges fares or fees for rides (free promotional rides alone do not qualify)\n\nFor \"removed from\": Tesla has discontinued, suspended, or withdrawn a previously operational robotaxi service in Arizona that met all the \"offered to\" criteria above, where:\n\nThe service is no longer accepting new ride requests from the general public for any period of time as a result of a decision by Tesla to suspend operations in the area, and such suspension is not explicitly characterized as temporary (e.g., due to weather, maintenance, or system upgrades). The Payout Criterion is not satisfied by short-term service interruptions that are clearly communicated as temporary or expected to resume.\n\nThe following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\n\nIf a government orders Tesla to cease ongoing services but they do not comply, then the market does not resolve to Yes\nServices limited to Tesla employees, contractors, or their guests\nBeta tests, pilot programs, or demonstrations\nServices requiring special invitations, access codes, or pre-approval to use\nVehicles with human safety drivers, monitors, or operators in any seat of the vehicle who can take control\nTemporary suspensions due to weather or technical issues\nServices operating only with remote human teleoperators controlling each vehicle continuously\nTest fleets that are not charging fares to the general public\nAnnouncements of future launches without actual operational service",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bloomberg",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Tesla Inc",
            "url": "https://www.tesla.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tesla Inc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4096.0395,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A4175A42D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arizona",
        "autonomous vehicles",
        "robotaxi",
        "tesla",
        "tesla robotaxi public"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7JN7PVN489",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-018V10RKK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-NV",
      "question": "Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Nevada before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Nevada",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Nevada: Kalshi staff determination of whether the referenced autonomous vehicle service became available to general public consumers in the named state, based on Bloomberg reporting, by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla robotaxi service is offered to the general public in Nevada before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor \"offered to\": Tesla has launched a robotaxi service in Nevada that satisfies ALL of the following criteria:\n\nThe service allows members of the general public to request rides through a publicly accessible application or platform (not limited to Tesla employees, beta testers, or invite-only participants)\nThe vehicles operate without any human driver or safety monitor physically present in the driver's seat who is actively controlling the vehicle during normal operation\nThe service charges fares or fees for rides (free promotional rides alone do not qualify)\n\nFor \"removed from\": Tesla has discontinued, suspended, or withdrawn a previously operational robotaxi service in Nevada that met all the \"offered to\" criteria above, where:\n\nThe service is no longer accepting new ride requests from the general public for any period of time as a result of a decision by Tesla to suspend operations in the area, and such suspension is not explicitly characterized as temporary (e.g., due to weather, maintenance, or system upgrades). The Payout Criterion is not satisfied by short-term service interruptions that are clearly communicated as temporary or expected to resume.\n\nThe following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\n\nIf a government orders Tesla to cease ongoing services but they do not comply, then the market does not resolve to Yes\nServices limited to Tesla employees, contractors, or their guests\nBeta tests, pilot programs, or demonstrations\nServices requiring special invitations, access codes, or pre-approval to use\nVehicles with human safety drivers, monitors, or operators in any seat of the vehicle who can take control\nTemporary suspensions due to weather or technical issues\nServices operating only with remote human teleoperators controlling each vehicle continuously\nTest fleets that are not charging fares to the general public\nAnnouncements of future launches without actual operational service",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bloomberg",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Tesla Inc",
            "url": "https://www.tesla.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tesla Inc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5425.1463,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2D5C58BD9F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "autonomous vehicles",
        "nevada",
        "robotaxi",
        "tesla",
        "tesla robotaxi public"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5183RCYK74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-018V10RKK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-FL",
      "question": "Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Florida before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Florida",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Florida: Kalshi staff determination of whether the referenced autonomous vehicle service became available to general public consumers in the named state, based on Bloomberg reporting, by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-22T20:25:49Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla robotaxi service is offered to the general public in Florida before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor \"offered to\": Tesla has launched a robotaxi service in Florida that satisfies ALL of the following criteria:\n\nThe service allows members of the general public to request rides through a publicly accessible application or platform (not limited to Tesla employees, beta testers, or invite-only participants)\nThe vehicles operate without any human driver or safety monitor physically present in the driver's seat who is actively controlling the vehicle during normal operation\nThe service charges fares or fees for rides (free promotional rides alone do not qualify)\n\nFor \"removed from\": Tesla has discontinued, suspended, or withdrawn a previously operational robotaxi service in Florida that met all the \"offered to\" criteria above, where:\n\nThe service is no longer accepting new ride requests from the general public for any period of time as a result of a decision by Tesla to suspend operations in the area, and such suspension is not explicitly characterized as temporary (e.g., due to weather, maintenance, or system upgrades). The Payout Criterion is not satisfied by short-term service interruptions that are clearly communicated as temporary or expected to resume.\n\nThe following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\n\nIf a government orders Tesla to cease ongoing services but they do not comply, then the market does not resolve to Yes\nServices limited to Tesla employees, contractors, or their guests\nBeta tests, pilot programs, or demonstrations\nServices requiring special invitations, access codes, or pre-approval to use\nVehicles with human safety drivers, monitors, or operators in any seat of the vehicle who can take control\nTemporary suspensions due to weather or technical issues\nServices operating only with remote human teleoperators controlling each vehicle continuously\nTest fleets that are not charging fares to the general public\nAnnouncements of future launches without actual operational service",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bloomberg",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Tesla Inc",
            "url": "https://www.tesla.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tesla Inc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8114.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2D5C58BD9F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "autonomous vehicles",
        "florida",
        "robotaxi",
        "tesla",
        "tesla robotaxi public"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WWD7DTRD94",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-018V10RKK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-CA",
      "question": "Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in California before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "California",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "California: Kalshi staff determination of whether the referenced autonomous vehicle service became available to general public consumers in the named state, based on Bloomberg reporting, by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla robotaxi service is offered to the general public in California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor \"offered to\": Tesla has launched a robotaxi service in California that satisfies ALL of the following criteria:\n\nThe service allows members of the general public to request rides through a publicly accessible application or platform (not limited to Tesla employees, beta testers, or invite-only participants)\nThe vehicles operate without any human driver or safety monitor physically present in the driver's seat who is actively controlling the vehicle during normal operation\nThe service charges fares or fees for rides (free promotional rides alone do not qualify)\n\nFor \"removed from\": Tesla has discontinued, suspended, or withdrawn a previously operational robotaxi service in California that met all the \"offered to\" criteria above, where:\n\nThe service is no longer accepting new ride requests from the general public for any period of time as a result of a decision by Tesla to suspend operations in the area, and such suspension is not explicitly characterized as temporary (e.g., due to weather, maintenance, or system upgrades). The Payout Criterion is not satisfied by short-term service interruptions that are clearly communicated as temporary or expected to resume.\n\nThe following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\n\nIf a government orders Tesla to cease ongoing services but they do not comply, then the market does not resolve to Yes\nServices limited to Tesla employees, contractors, or their guests\nBeta tests, pilot programs, or demonstrations\nServices requiring special invitations, access codes, or pre-approval to use\nVehicles with human safety drivers, monitors, or operators in any seat of the vehicle who can take control\nTemporary suspensions due to weather or technical issues\nServices operating only with remote human teleoperators controlling each vehicle continuously\nTest fleets that are not charging fares to the general public\nAnnouncements of future launches without actual operational service",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Tesla Inc",
            "url": "https://www.tesla.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "autonomous vehicles",
        "california",
        "robotaxi",
        "tesla",
        "tesla robotaxi public"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7SFN8S0J91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-018V10RKK3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-GA",
      "question": "Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Georgia before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Georgia",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Georgia: Kalshi staff determination of whether the referenced autonomous vehicle service became available to general public consumers in the named state, based on Bloomberg reporting, by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla robotaxi service is offered to the general public in Georgia before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor \"offered to\": Tesla has launched a robotaxi service in Georgia that satisfies ALL of the following criteria:\n\nThe service allows members of the general public to request rides through a publicly accessible application or platform (not limited to Tesla employees, beta testers, or invite-only participants)\nThe vehicles operate without any human driver or safety monitor physically present in the driver's seat who is actively controlling the vehicle during normal operation\nThe service charges fares or fees for rides (free promotional rides alone do not qualify)\n\nFor \"removed from\": Tesla has discontinued, suspended, or withdrawn a previously operational robotaxi service in Georgia that met all the \"offered to\" criteria above, where:\n\nThe service is no longer accepting new ride requests from the general public for any period of time as a result of a decision by Tesla to suspend operations in the area, and such suspension is not explicitly characterized as temporary (e.g., due to weather, maintenance, or system upgrades). The Payout Criterion is not satisfied by short-term service interruptions that are clearly communicated as temporary or expected to resume.\n\nThe following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\n\nIf a government orders Tesla to cease ongoing services but they do not comply, then the market does not resolve to Yes\nServices limited to Tesla employees, contractors, or their guests\nBeta tests, pilot programs, or demonstrations\nServices requiring special invitations, access codes, or pre-approval to use\nVehicles with human safety drivers, monitors, or operators in any seat of the vehicle who can take control\nTemporary suspensions due to weather or technical issues\nServices operating only with remote human teleoperators controlling each vehicle continuously\nTest fleets that are not charging fares to the general public\nAnnouncements of future launches without actual operational service",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bloomberg",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
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            "name": "Elon Musk",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
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            "name": "Tesla Inc",
            "url": "https://www.tesla.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "tags": [
        "autonomous vehicles",
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        "tesla robotaxi public"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5183RCYK74",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "PENDING",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-22T20:55:53.950211Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.9,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-018V10RKK3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}