{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KHF6SRZBT3",
  "slug": "kxroni-27aug",
  "question": "What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "el-nino",
    "climate-indices",
    "roni-index",
    "temperature-measurement",
    "seasonal-climate"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These five Kalshi markets collectively price the peak Regional Oceanic Niño Index value during the 2026-27 El Niño season. The markets span five mutually exclusive temperature tiers: below 1.5°C, 1.5-1.9°C, 2.0-2.4°C, 2.5-2.9°C, and at or above 3.0°C. Together they form a discrete probability distribution over El Niño intensity. Resolution by Kalshi staff determination occurs at the August 2027 close.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Z1J6HLPM84",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.56,
    "implied_probability": 0.56
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PNF2C2T6G4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KHF6SRZBT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRONI-27AUG-T15",
      "question": "Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be below 1.5°C?",
      "description": "Below 1.5°C",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 1.5°C: Kalshi staff determines whether the peak Regional Oceanic Niño Index value during the 2026-27 El Niño season meets the stated threshold, based on published oceanographic data, by August 15, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is below 1.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 29.63,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "el-niño",
        "ocean-temperature",
        "roni",
        "roni reanalysis oceanic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PK9SMP58F7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KHF6SRZBT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRONI-27AUG-B15",
      "question": "Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 1.5°C and 1.9°C?",
      "description": "1.5°C to 1.9°C",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "1.5°C to 1.9°C: Kalshi staff determines whether the peak Regional Oceanic Niño Index value during the 2026-27 El Niño season meets the stated threshold, based on published oceanographic data, by August 15, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is between 1.5 and 1.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 376.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1.9,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "el-niño",
        "ocean-temperature",
        "roni",
        "roni reanalysis oceanic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KQ8QDZKNP9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KHF6SRZBT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRONI-27AUG-B20",
      "question": "Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.0°C and 2.4°C?",
      "description": "2.0°C to 2.4°C",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "2.0°C to 2.4°C: Kalshi staff determines whether the peak Regional Oceanic Niño Index value during the 2026-27 El Niño season meets the stated threshold, based on published oceanographic data, by August 15, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is between 2.0 and 2.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.52,
      "volume_total_usd": 443.52,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2.4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "el-niño",
        "ocean-temperature",
        "roni",
        "roni reanalysis oceanic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZPSB3NXP85",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KHF6SRZBT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRONI-27AUG-B25",
      "question": "Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.5°C and 2.9°C?",
      "description": "2.5°C to 2.9°C",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "2.5°C to 2.9°C: Kalshi staff determines whether the peak Regional Oceanic Niño Index value during the 2026-27 El Niño season meets the stated threshold, based on published oceanographic data, by August 15, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is between 2.5 and 2.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.39,
      "volume_total_usd": 1203.38,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2.9,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "el-niño",
        "ocean-temperature",
        "roni",
        "roni reanalysis oceanic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z1J6HLPM84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KHF6SRZBT3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRONI-27AUG-T30",
      "question": "Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be at least 3.0°C?",
      "description": "At least 3.0°C",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 3.0°C: Kalshi staff determines whether the peak Regional Oceanic Niño Index value during the 2026-27 El Niño season meets the stated threshold, based on published oceanographic data, by August 15, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is at least 3.0°C, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.28,
      "volume_total_usd": 3872.65,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "el-niño",
        "ocean-temperature",
        "roni",
        "roni reanalysis oceanic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KHF6SRZBT3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}