{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WLNJZS7DL2",
  "slug": "kxrtx5090ms-27feb",
  "question": "The monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 in February 2027",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      0.5,
      0.75
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 0.5,
        "prob": 54
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.75,
        "prob": 36
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.25,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.5,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.75,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-rtx-5090",
    "gpu-pricing",
    "compute-market",
    "hardware-financials",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the NVIDIA RTX 5090's monthly average compute price per hour in February 2027. Seven binary strikes span $0.50 to $2.00, forming an implied probability distribution over the rate level. Together they allow readers to extract market-consensus density around each threshold. Kalshi staff determine resolution using Ornn pricing data, with settlement expected by March 8, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZPQH00DRV9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.36,
    "implied_probability": 0.36
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S4XJTF4ZL2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WLNJZS7DL2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27FEB-0.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $0.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $0.50: Kalshi staff determination of the listed graphics processing unit's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $0.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.54,
      "implied_probability": 0.54,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2763.1854000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-60FA8F7E05",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "february 2027",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZPQH00DRV9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WLNJZS7DL2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27FEB-0.750",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.75 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $0.75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $0.75: Kalshi staff determination of the listed graphics processing unit's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $0.75 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.36,
      "implied_probability": 0.36,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2032.3475999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-90C0B50828",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "february 2027",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2Y2JC8KL58",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WLNJZS7DL2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27FEB-1.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.00 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.00: Kalshi staff determination of the listed graphics processing unit's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 214.2416,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-7F2D36A14E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "february 2027",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S81SRNFX67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WLNJZS7DL2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27FEB-1.250",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.25: Kalshi staff determination of the listed graphics processing unit's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1.25 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 181.28080000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-34DCC25BCC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "february 2027",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QF6PBL6QS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WLNJZS7DL2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27FEB-1.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.50: Kalshi staff determination of the listed graphics processing unit's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1.5 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 126.24080000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-87886C0743",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "february 2027",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LPDJ9GZ9Z9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WLNJZS7DL2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27FEB-1.750",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.75: Kalshi staff determination of the listed graphics processing unit's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1.75 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.45,
      "volume_total_usd": 263.1775,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-911B53D225",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "february 2027",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HJWQTC7CT9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WLNJZS7DL2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27FEB-2.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $2.00 in February 2027?",
      "description": "Above $2.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.00: Kalshi staff determination of the listed graphics processing unit's monthly average compute price from Ornn dashboard data, resolved by March 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-01T04:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T04:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $2 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in February 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 153.2127,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-5CDF0EF978",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "february 2027",
        "gpu",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-WLNJZS7DL2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}