{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY2VJS8CW7",
  "slug": "kxrtx5090ms-27mar",
  "question": "The monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 in March 2027",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      0.5,
      0.75
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 0.5,
        "prob": 56
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.75,
        "prob": 37
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 19
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.25,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.5,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1.75,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nvidia-rtx-5090",
    "gpu-pricing",
    "compute-cost",
    "hardware-economics",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the monthly average hourly compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 GPU for March 2027. Kalshi structures the event as seven discrete binary strike thresholds ranging from $0.50 to $2.00 per hour, allowing traders to express views across the full price distribution. All seven markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination, sourced from the Ornn dashboard's published March 2027 compute pricing data. The implied price level can be read from the strike ladder where contracts flip from bid to offer.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7PQZC24CL6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.37,
    "implied_probability": 0.37
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FCWCXT0KR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY2VJS8CW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27MAR-0.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $0.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $0.50: Kalshi staff determination of the monthly average compute price from the Ornn dashboard for March 2027, published by April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $0.5 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2739.5256000000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-AE78112329",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "march 2027",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7PQZC24CL6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY2VJS8CW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27MAR-0.750",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.75 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $0.75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $0.75: Kalshi staff determination of the monthly average compute price from the Ornn dashboard for March 2027, published by April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $0.75 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1107.04,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-CA193A52AD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "march 2027",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S1JDQ1KSK4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY2VJS8CW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27MAR-1.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.00 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.00: Kalshi staff determination of the monthly average compute price from the Ornn dashboard for March 2027, published by April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 272.84,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-00E098B238",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "march 2027",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MLV73C1XP4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY2VJS8CW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27MAR-1.250",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.25: Kalshi staff determination of the monthly average compute price from the Ornn dashboard for March 2027, published by April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1.25 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 578.34,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-DB92EE3EE7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "march 2027",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KCF31VCDD6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY2VJS8CW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27MAR-1.500",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.50: Kalshi staff determination of the monthly average compute price from the Ornn dashboard for March 2027, published by April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1.5 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 23.66,
      "volume_total_usd": 1081.08,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-CC0A6152B9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "march 2027",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-116VJCL111",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY2VJS8CW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27MAR-1.750",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.75 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $1.75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $1.75: Kalshi staff determination of the monthly average compute price from the Ornn dashboard for March 2027, published by April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1.75 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 197.52040000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-1AFB1F981D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "march 2027",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-64PS0N8V65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY2VJS8CW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRTX5090MS-27MAR-2.000",
      "question": "Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $2.00 in March 2027?",
      "description": "Above $2.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2.00: Kalshi staff determination of the monthly average compute price from the Ornn dashboard for March 2027, published by April 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $2 in March 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour in March 2027, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.\n\nRevisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The \"USD\" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Ornn",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Ornn",
            "url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Ornn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 335.5203,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-8AC9D4E38F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "compute pricing",
        "march 2027",
        "nvidia",
        "nvidia rtx 5090",
        "rtx 5090"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SY2VJS8CW7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}