{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
  "slug": "kxsanctionrussia-26jan01",
  "question": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "russia-sanctions",
    "us-legislation",
    "2026-politics",
    "foreign-policy",
    "regulatory-enforcement"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russia-targeting sanctions legislation will be enacted into law before January 1, 2027. All three are Kalshi binary contracts, distinguished by deadline tiers: September 1, November 1, and January 1, 2027. Earlier-deadline contracts price incrementally lower probability given the shorter enactment window. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination using the White House website as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BM3C7ZMNK6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.51,
    "implied_probability": 0.51
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-81CN2T4898",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JUL",
      "question": "Will legislation that specifically targets Russia by (i) mandating or authorizing primary sanctions on Russia or key Russian sectors, (ii) imposing secondary penalties on foreign enablers or purchasers of Russian exports, and/or (iii) enabling the seizure and transfer of frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine become law before Sep 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: The White House website determines by January 1, 2027 whether legislation matching the specified criteria became law through presidential signature or veto override.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: \n(i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors\n(ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion\n(iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or\n(iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions. \n\nRoutine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "White House",
            "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://congress.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "legislation",
        "russia",
        "russian sanctions bill",
        "sanctions",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HXJVSWP3V6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JUL-NOV",
      "question": "Will legislation that specifically targets Russia by (i) mandating or authorizing primary sanctions on Russia or key Russian sectors, (ii) imposing secondary penalties on foreign enablers or purchasers of Russian exports, and/or (iii) enabling the seizure and transfer of frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine become law before Nov 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Nov 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Nov 1, 2026: The White House website determines by January 1, 2027 whether legislation matching the specified criteria became law through presidential signature or veto override.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: \n(i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors\n(ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion\n(iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or\n(iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions. \n\nRoutine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "White House",
            "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://congress.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "legislation",
        "russia",
        "russian sanctions bill",
        "sanctions",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BM3C7ZMNK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JAN01-27",
      "question": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law before 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: The White House website determines by January 1, 2027 whether legislation matching the specified criteria became law through presidential signature or veto override.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: \n(i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors\n(ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion\n(iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or\n(iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions. \n\nRoutine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "White House",
            "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://congress.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": 36.8577,
      "volume_total_usd": 8128.8135,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "legislation",
        "russia",
        "russian sanctions bill",
        "sanctions",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}