{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-77NC57P468",
  "slug": "kxsatoshibtcyear-27",
  "question": "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "satoshi-nakamoto",
    "bitcoin-movement",
    "crypto-identity",
    "wallet-activity",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any Bitcoin held in wallets attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto moves on-chain before January 2027. Kalshi staff will determine resolution using Ark Intellect (formerly Arkham Intelligence) address-attribution data. A key caveat: wallet attribution relies on heuristic clustering, not cryptographic proof of ownership. Any movement by an unrelated actor controlling a misattributed address could trigger resolution ambiguity.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SSKHDWNR79",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.03,
    "implied_probability": 0.03,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SSKHDWNR79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-77NC57P468",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSATOSHIBTCYEAR-27",
      "question": "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ark Intellect (formerly Arkham Intelligence) tracks whether Satoshi Nakamoto's known Bitcoin addresses execute any on-chain transaction before 2027-01-01.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Satoshi Index",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Satoshi Index",
            "url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 39,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 17.3427,
      "volume_total_usd": 6223.4958,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-EF37B2824F",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-82Z2P4M7Y2",
          "price": 0.056
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "movement",
        "on-chain",
        "satoshi",
        "satoshi nakamoto bitcoin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "crypto_prices"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-77NC57P468",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}