{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VPDMQVS3R6",
  "slug": "kxsaxonyanhalt-26sep06",
  "question": "Will the CDU win the most seats in the Saxony-Anhalt state election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "german-politics",
    "state-election",
    "saxony-anhalt",
    "2027",
    "parliamentary-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election across seven party-specific binary contracts. Each contract prices one party's probability of winning, isolating AfD, CDU, SPD, Die Linke, BSW, Grüne, and FDP independently. All seven resolve via Kalshi staff determination using the official proclamation from the relevant German state electoral authority.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZN5RHSWF30",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.97,
    "implied_probability": 0.97
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZN5RHSWF30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VPDMQVS3R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSAXONYANHALT-26SEP06-AFD",
      "question": "Will AfD win the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?",
      "description": "AfD",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "AfD: The relevant German state electoral authority's official proclamation of results for the named state election determines which outcome won the most votes by September 6, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If AfD wins the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6468.2122,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "afd",
        "german-politics",
        "saxony-anhalt",
        "state-election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MHDGCTRHN4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VPDMQVS3R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSAXONYANHALT-26SEP06-CDU",
      "question": "Will CDU win the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?",
      "description": "CDU",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "CDU: The relevant German state electoral authority's official proclamation of results for the named state election determines which outcome won the most votes by September 6, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If CDU wins the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25.18,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cdu",
        "german-politics",
        "saxony-anhalt",
        "state-election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PFFPG220H1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VPDMQVS3R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSAXONYANHALT-26SEP06-DLIN",
      "question": "Will Die Linke win the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?",
      "description": "Die Linke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Die Linke: The relevant German state electoral authority's official proclamation of results for the named state election determines which outcome won the most votes by September 6, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Die Linke wins the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 19.062,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "die linke",
        "german-politics",
        "saxony-anhalt",
        "state-election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TXHWZX8BC2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VPDMQVS3R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSAXONYANHALT-26SEP06-SPD",
      "question": "Will SPD win the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?",
      "description": "SPD",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "SPD: The relevant German state electoral authority's official proclamation of results for the named state election determines which outcome won the most votes by September 6, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SPD wins the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 278.41,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "german-politics",
        "saxony-anhalt",
        "spd",
        "state-election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6Z2BRFLMW8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VPDMQVS3R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSAXONYANHALT-26SEP06-BSW",
      "question": "Will BSW win the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?",
      "description": "BSW",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "BSW: The relevant German state electoral authority's official proclamation of results for the named state election determines which outcome won the most votes by September 6, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If BSW wins the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1242.902,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bsw",
        "german-politics",
        "saxony-anhalt",
        "state-election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8F15T65YS6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VPDMQVS3R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSAXONYANHALT-26SEP06-GRUN",
      "question": "Will Grüne win the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?",
      "description": "Grüne",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Grüne: The relevant German state electoral authority's official proclamation of results for the named state election determines which outcome won the most votes by September 6, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Grüne wins the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 125.3601,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "german-politics",
        "gr ne",
        "saxony-anhalt",
        "state-election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4BHQGVP7H4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VPDMQVS3R6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSAXONYANHALT-26SEP06-FDP",
      "question": "Will FDP win the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?",
      "description": "FDP",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "FDP: The relevant German state electoral authority's official proclamation of results for the named state election determines which outcome won the most votes by September 6, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-09-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If FDP wins the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 244.04,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdp",
        "german-politics",
        "saxony-anhalt",
        "state-election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VPDMQVS3R6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}