{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZX2HKB77S0",
  "slug": "kxscrewwormcount-27jan01",
  "question": "New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States, January 8, 2027",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      0
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 24
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 15
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 7
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "disease-surveillance",
    "parasitic-infection",
    "us-public-health",
    "screwworm",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track confirmed New World screwworm human infestation cases in the United States through calendar year 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of discrete strike thresholds: above 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10 cases. Each tier prices an independent binary outcome against the same authoritative source, the named agency's official epidemiological records. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination, settling in January 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-J55KRNFYC9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.23,
    "implied_probability": 0.23
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J55KRNFYC9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZX2HKB77S0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A0",
      "question": "Above 0 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 0",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0: The named agency's official epidemiological records document confirmed infestation cases within the referenced geographic area during the specified calendar year by 2027-01-08.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.\n\nImportant information: To clarify, for purposes of this Contract, \"cases\" of New World screwworm refers to human cases only, consistent with the prior event in this series under equivalent rulebook variables. The Contract has been amended to provide that, unless otherwise specified, disease cases refer to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "national health agencies",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "national health agencies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CDC",
            "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Health Organization",
            "url": "https://www.who.int/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CDC",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.7923,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-344113EB6A",
      "also_on": null,
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        "world screwworm infestation"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Above 1 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1: The named agency's official epidemiological records document confirmed infestation cases within the referenced geographic area during the specified calendar year by 2027-01-08.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 1, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.\n\nImportant information: To clarify, for purposes of this Contract, \"cases\" of New World screwworm refers to human cases only, consistent with the prior event in this series under equivalent rulebook variables. The Contract has been amended to provide that, unless otherwise specified, disease cases refer to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "national health agencies",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "national health agencies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CDC",
            "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "national health statistics reporting bodies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "World Health Organization",
            "url": "https://www.who.int/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.17,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-3CA4C98D81",
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        "world screwworm infestation"
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YXCX10FRQ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZX2HKB77S0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A2",
      "question": "Above 2 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2: The named agency's official epidemiological records document confirmed infestation cases within the referenced geographic area during the specified calendar year by 2027-01-08.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 2, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.\n\nImportant information: To clarify, for purposes of this Contract, \"cases\" of New World screwworm refers to human cases only, consistent with the prior event in this series under equivalent rulebook variables. The Contract has been amended to provide that, unless otherwise specified, disease cases refer to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "national health agencies",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "national health agencies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CDC",
            "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "national health statistics reporting bodies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Health Organization",
            "url": "https://www.who.int/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "CDC",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1915.6046000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-3BD8AA2832",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "disease",
        "screwworm",
        "usa",
        "world screwworm infestation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y5MX2SYVT7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZX2HKB77S0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A3",
      "question": "Above 3 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3: The named agency's official epidemiological records document confirmed infestation cases within the referenced geographic area during the specified calendar year by 2027-01-08.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 3, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.\n\nImportant information: To clarify, for purposes of this Contract, \"cases\" of New World screwworm refers to human cases only, consistent with the prior event in this series under equivalent rulebook variables. The Contract has been amended to provide that, unless otherwise specified, disease cases refer to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "national health agencies",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "national health agencies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "national health statistics reporting bodies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "World Health Organization",
            "url": "https://www.who.int/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.09,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1318.9599,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-6799B05D5A",
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        "world screwworm infestation"
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          "bucket": null,
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        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0JD4XBNFY2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZX2HKB77S0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A5",
      "question": "Above 5 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5: The named agency's official epidemiological records document confirmed infestation cases within the referenced geographic area during the specified calendar year by 2027-01-08.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 5, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.\n\nImportant information: To clarify, for purposes of this Contract, \"cases\" of New World screwworm refers to human cases only, consistent with the prior event in this series under equivalent rulebook variables. The Contract has been amended to provide that, unless otherwise specified, disease cases refer to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZX2HKB77S0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A10",
      "question": "Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10: The named agency's official epidemiological records document confirmed infestation cases within the referenced geographic area during the specified calendar year by 2027-01-08.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 10, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.\n\nImportant information: To clarify, for purposes of this Contract, \"cases\" of New World screwworm refers to human cases only, consistent with the prior event in this series under equivalent rulebook variables. The Contract has been amended to provide that, unless otherwise specified, disease cases refer to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question_id": "CMX-A96CB83D52",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZX2HKB77S0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}