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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDKJ171883",
  "slug": "kxsdrgovrunoffmov-govsdnomr26r",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be above 12%?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
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    "south-dakota-politics",
    "republican-primary",
    "2027-election",
    "gubernatorial-race",
    "margin-of-victory"
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  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff between Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden. Kalshi structures the event as two parallel candidate-anchored tier sets, each spanning five discrete margin bands from 0-3% to 12% or greater. Together they imply an embedded outcome signal: only one candidate can win, so the active tier on one side negates all tiers on the other. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract using South Dakota's official certified election results.",
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDKJ171883",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-TDOE-P56",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be above 12%?",
      "description": "Toby Doeden, ≥12%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Toby Doeden, ≥12%: South Dakota's official election authority certifies the 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff margin of victory; Kalshi staff determines if the named candidate's margin exceeds 12 percentage points by July 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 12% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Toby Doeden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Toby Doeden if Toby Doeden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Toby Doeden loses. If Toby Doeden wins, the margin will be positive; if Toby Doeden loses, the margin will be negative; if Toby Doeden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Toby Doeden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 9% and 12%?",
      "description": "Toby Doeden, 9-12%",
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      "underlying_reference": "Toby Doeden, 9-12%: South Dakota's official election authority certifies the 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff margin of victory; Kalshi staff determines if the named candidate's margin exceeds 12 percentage points by July 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Toby Doeden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Toby Doeden if Toby Doeden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Toby Doeden loses. If Toby Doeden wins, the margin will be positive; if Toby Doeden loses, the margin will be negative; if Toby Doeden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Toby Doeden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 6% and 9%?",
      "description": "Toby Doeden, 6-9%",
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      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Toby Doeden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Toby Doeden if Toby Doeden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Toby Doeden loses. If Toby Doeden wins, the margin will be positive; if Toby Doeden loses, the margin will be negative; if Toby Doeden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Toby Doeden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDKJ171883",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 3% and 6%?",
      "description": "Toby Doeden, 3-6%",
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      "underlying_reference": "Toby Doeden, 3-6%: South Dakota's official election authority certifies the 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff margin of victory; Kalshi staff determines if the named candidate's margin exceeds 12 percentage points by July 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Toby Doeden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Toby Doeden if Toby Doeden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Toby Doeden loses. If Toby Doeden wins, the margin will be positive; if Toby Doeden loses, the margin will be negative; if Toby Doeden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Toby Doeden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 0% and 3%?",
      "description": "Toby Doeden, 0-3%",
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      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Toby Doeden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Toby Doeden if Toby Doeden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Toby Doeden loses. If Toby Doeden wins, the margin will be positive; if Toby Doeden loses, the margin will be negative; if Toby Doeden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Toby Doeden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 0% and 3%?",
      "description": "Larry Rhoden, 0-3%",
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      "underlying_reference": "Larry Rhoden, 0-3%: South Dakota's official election authority certifies the 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff margin of victory; Kalshi staff determines if the named candidate's margin exceeds 12 percentage points by July 28, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Larry Rhoden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Larry Rhoden if Larry Rhoden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Larry Rhoden loses. If Larry Rhoden wins, the margin will be positive; if Larry Rhoden loses, the margin will be negative; if Larry Rhoden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Larry Rhoden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 3% and 6%?",
      "description": "Larry Rhoden, 3-6%",
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      "close_at": "2027-07-28T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Larry Rhoden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Larry Rhoden if Larry Rhoden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Larry Rhoden loses. If Larry Rhoden wins, the margin will be positive; if Larry Rhoden loses, the margin will be negative; if Larry Rhoden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Larry Rhoden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
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