{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZMWFMPNXD9",
  "slug": "kxsenatemid-26",
  "question": "Will the Michigan Democratic Senate nominee be determined by the 2026 election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate-2026",
    "michigan-politics",
    "democratic-primary",
    "nomination-race",
    "electoral-mechanics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of Michigan's 2026 Democratic Senate primary. Each Kalshi contract prices one named candidate's nomination probability as a binary yes/no. All nine resolve via Kalshi staff determination on 2026-11-03. Together they form an implicit probability distribution across the candidate field.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8MLXFXWDL1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.67,
    "implied_probability": 0.67
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9CM9YNKKR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZMWFMPNXD9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMID-26-MMCM",
      "question": "Will Mallory McMorrow be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?",
      "description": "Mallory McMorrow",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Mallory McMorrow: Kalshi staff determination on 2026-11-03 of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic Senate nominee in the referenced state, based on the Democratic primary outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Mallory McMorrow wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.006,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 3,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MRKL5V60B4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZMWFMPNXD9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMID-26-SANT",
      "question": "Will Sarah Anthony be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?",
      "description": "Sarah Anthony",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Sarah Anthony: Kalshi staff determination on 2026-11-03 of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic Senate nominee in the referenced state, based on the Democratic primary outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sarah Anthony wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
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        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
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            "name": "Democratic Party",
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        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8MLXFXWDL1",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMID-26-AELS",
      "question": "Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?",
      "description": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Abdul El-Sayed: Kalshi staff determination on 2026-11-03 of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic Senate nominee in the referenced state, based on the Democratic primary outcome.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Abdul El-Sayed wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
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        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
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      "last_price": 0.67,
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        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3DWDBMJ1L8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZMWFMPNXD9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMID-26-DNES",
      "question": "Will Dana Nessel be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?",
      "description": "Dana Nessel",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Dana Nessel: Kalshi staff determination on 2026-11-03 of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic Senate nominee in the referenced state, based on the Democratic primary outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Dana Nessel wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
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        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
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            "name": "Democratic Party",
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        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
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      "volume_total_usd": 1.63971,
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      "tags": [
        "dana nessel",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NWM75VGDW7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZMWFMPNXD9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMID-26-KMCD",
      "question": "Will Kristen McDonald Rivet be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?",
      "description": "Kristen McDonald Rivet",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kristen McDonald Rivet: Kalshi staff determination on 2026-11-03 of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic Senate nominee in the referenced state, based on the Democratic primary outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Kristen McDonald Rivet wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F9PVW8MG41",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZMWFMPNXD9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE",
      "question": "Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?",
      "description": "Haley Stevens",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Haley Stevens: Kalshi staff determination on 2026-11-03 of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic Senate nominee in the referenced state, based on the Democratic primary outcome.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Haley Stevens wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source": "Republican Party",
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        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
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        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11323.491300000002,
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      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T90Q1BW060",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZMWFMPNXD9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMID-26-ALEV",
      "question": "Will Andy Levin be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?",
      "description": "Andy Levin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Andy Levin: Kalshi staff determination on 2026-11-03 of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic Senate nominee in the referenced state, based on the Democratic primary outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Andy Levin wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R3Y5TH69L3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZMWFMPNXD9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMID-26-MSAH",
      "question": "Will Matt Sahr be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?",
      "description": "Matt Sahr",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Matt Sahr: Kalshi staff determination on 2026-11-03 of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic Senate nominee in the referenced state, based on the Democratic primary outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Matt Sahr wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "volume_total_usd": 0.67787,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NNN5Z50MP0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZMWFMPNXD9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMID-26-RTLA",
      "question": "Will Rashida Tlaib be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?",
      "description": "Rashida Tlaib",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Rashida Tlaib: Kalshi staff determination on 2026-11-03 of whether the named candidate becomes the Democratic Senate nominee in the referenced state, based on the Democratic primary outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Rashida Tlaib wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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