{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94",
  "slug": "kxsenatevar-26",
  "question": "Will the Virginia Republican Senate nominee be determined before the 2026 election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "virginia-senate",
    "republican-nominee",
    "2026-election",
    "us-politics",
    "primary-selection"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican Party's official Senate nominee designation for Virginia's 2026 race. Each Kalshi contract isolates a single candidate; taken together, they form an exhaustive probability distribution across the declared field. All eight resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the Republican Party's official nominee designation. The field includes Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and Attorney General Jason Miyares, making this a competitive primary to monitor.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BM90JYV593",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.86,
    "implied_probability": 0.86
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J6S65HNKT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEVAR-26-BREE",
      "question": "Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "Bryce Reeves",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bryce Reeves: The Republican Party's official designation of the named candidate as the party's Senate nominee for the referenced state, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Bryce Reeves wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 114.9,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bryce reeves",
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        "republican",
        "senate",
        "virginia"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CDX39LN2S7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEVAR-26-KFAR",
      "question": "Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "Kim Farington",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kim Farington: The Republican Party's official designation of the named candidate as the party's Senate nominee for the referenced state, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Kim Farington wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 85.428,
      "volume_total_usd": 1337.0148,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "kim farington",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2RSTTXV8S5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEVAR-26-WES",
      "question": "Will Winsome Earle-Sears be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "Winsome Earle-Sears",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Winsome Earle-Sears: The Republican Party's official designation of the named candidate as the party's Senate nominee for the referenced state, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Winsome Earle-Sears wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3.2,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "nominee",
        "republican",
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        "winsome earle sears"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VGLRCZTVB3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEVAR-26-DWIL",
      "question": "Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "David Williams",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "David Williams: The Republican Party's official designation of the named candidate as the party's Senate nominee for the referenced state, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If David Williams wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 29.08722,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "nominee",
        "republican",
        "senate",
        "virginia"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y4S40KCLB7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEVAR-26-JMIY",
      "question": "Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "Jason Miyares",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jason Miyares: The Republican Party's official designation of the named candidate as the party's Senate nominee for the referenced state, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Jason Miyares wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.021,
      "implied_probability": 0.021,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25.431,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0Y1X191L63",
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      "question": "Will Aldous Mina be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "Aldous Mina",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Aldous Mina: The Republican Party's official designation of the named candidate as the party's Senate nominee for the referenced state, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Aldous Mina wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
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            "name": "Democratic Party",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
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        "score": 90,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 1.227,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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      "question": "Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "Chuck Smith",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Chuck Smith: The Republican Party's official designation of the named candidate as the party's Senate nominee for the referenced state, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Chuck Smith wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
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      "volume_total_usd": 24.47,
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEVAR-26-BMIZ",
      "question": "Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "Bert Mizusawa",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bert Mizusawa: The Republican Party's official designation of the named candidate as the party's Senate nominee for the referenced state, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Bert Mizusawa wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Republican Party",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://gop.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Republican Party",
            "url": "https://gop.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
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        "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
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