{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BFC23L7ZF7",
  "slug": "kxsg-26augmargin",
  "question": "Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin, Q2 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      12,
      14
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 8,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12,
        "prob": 75
      },
      {
        "threshold": 14,
        "prob": 47
      },
      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 19
      },
      {
        "threshold": 16,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 18,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "sweetgreen",
    "restaurant-operator",
    "profit-margin",
    "q2-2026",
    "financial-earnings"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Sweetgreen's restaurant-level profit margin for Q2 2026 earnings. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds, from 8% to 20%, each a binary yes/no. Together they imply a cumulative probability distribution over the margin outcome. Kalshi staff determine resolution using Fiscal.ai data sourced from Sweetgreen's reported financials.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BLM0MP2BG3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.47,
    "implied_probability": 0.47,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3HWTY1J3N9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BFC23L7ZF7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-8",
      "question": "Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 8% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 8%: Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data resolves whether the listed company reports a restaurant-level profit margin above the specified threshold in the referenced quarter, by September 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sweetgreen Inc. reports Above 8% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 19559.82,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-C211DD0935",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "profit margin",
        "q2 2026",
        "sweetgreen",
        "sweetgreen restaurant profit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K21LRJNZL5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BFC23L7ZF7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-10",
      "question": "Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10%: Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data resolves whether the listed company reports a restaurant-level profit margin above the specified threshold in the referenced quarter, by September 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sweetgreen Inc. reports Above 10% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1966.86,
      "volume_total_usd": 17574.96,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-7AFC73452D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "profit margin",
        "q2 2026",
        "sweetgreen",
        "sweetgreen restaurant profit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V1731CH4W5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BFC23L7ZF7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-12",
      "question": "Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 12% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 12%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12%: Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data resolves whether the listed company reports a restaurant-level profit margin above the specified threshold in the referenced quarter, by September 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sweetgreen Inc. reports Above 12% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1357.9,
      "volume_total_usd": 15587.95,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": "CMX-9BC7285BF4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "profit margin",
        "q2 2026",
        "sweetgreen",
        "sweetgreen restaurant profit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BLM0MP2BG3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BFC23L7ZF7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-14",
      "question": "Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 14% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 14%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 14%: Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data resolves whether the listed company reports a restaurant-level profit margin above the specified threshold in the referenced quarter, by September 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sweetgreen Inc. reports Above 14% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.47,
      "implied_probability": 0.47,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 432.05,
      "volume_total_usd": 8529.18,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": "CMX-DD080B8F56",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "profit margin",
        "q2 2026",
        "sweetgreen",
        "sweetgreen restaurant profit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZDJD11JVW1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BFC23L7ZF7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-15",
      "question": "Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 15% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 15%: Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data resolves whether the listed company reports a restaurant-level profit margin above the specified threshold in the referenced quarter, by September 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sweetgreen Inc. reports Above 15% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 144.63,
      "volume_total_usd": 877.99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": "CMX-14F9947216",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "profit margin",
        "q2 2026",
        "sweetgreen",
        "sweetgreen restaurant profit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-25MCQ3VR34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BFC23L7ZF7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-16",
      "question": "Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 16% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 16%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 16%: Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data resolves whether the listed company reports a restaurant-level profit margin above the specified threshold in the referenced quarter, by September 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sweetgreen Inc. reports Above 16% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1569.15,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 16,
      "question_id": "CMX-F74FBCEC09",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "profit margin",
        "q2 2026",
        "sweetgreen",
        "sweetgreen restaurant profit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-34K1QMGZ11",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BFC23L7ZF7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-18",
      "question": "Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 18% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 18%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 18%: Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data resolves whether the listed company reports a restaurant-level profit margin above the specified threshold in the referenced quarter, by September 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sweetgreen Inc. reports Above 18% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 27.49,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 18,
      "question_id": "CMX-93AC086358",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "profit margin",
        "q2 2026",
        "sweetgreen",
        "sweetgreen restaurant profit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BM1DVWHWQ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BFC23L7ZF7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-20",
      "question": "Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 20% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 20%: Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data resolves whether the listed company reports a restaurant-level profit margin above the specified threshold in the referenced quarter, by September 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-05T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sweetgreen Inc. reports Above 20% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3.66,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": "CMX-832547DBC1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "profit margin",
        "q2 2026",
        "sweetgreen",
        "sweetgreen restaurant profit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BFC23L7ZF7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}