{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5J02FXVM76",
  "slug": "kxshop-26auggmv",
  "question": "Shopify gross merchandise volume, Q2 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      112000000000,
      116000000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 108000000000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 112000000000,
        "prob": 85
      },
      {
        "threshold": 116000000000,
        "prob": 48
      },
      {
        "threshold": 120000000000,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 124000000000,
        "prob": 2
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "shopify",
    "gross-merchandise-volume",
    "q2-2026",
    "ecommerce-metrics",
    "financial-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Shopify's reported gross merchandise volume for Q2 2026, sourced from Shopify's official earnings disclosure. Kalshi structures the event as five binary strike thresholds: $108B, $112B, $116B, $120B, and $124B. Together they form an implied probability distribution across the GMV range. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination against Shopify's published Q2 2026 earnings report.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6Q5FJ93PR8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.48,
    "implied_probability": 0.48
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1BK18LQT46",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5J02FXVM76",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSHOP-26AUGGMV-108000000000",
      "question": "Will Shopify Inc. report Above $108 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above $108 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $108 billion: The listed company's reported gross merchandise volume for the second quarter of 2026, published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff, resolves by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T11:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Shopify Inc. reports Above 108000000000 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9099.09,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 108000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-93BCCA363D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gmv",
        "q2-2026",
        "shopify",
        "shopify gross merchandise"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5K2JYDY3H8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5J02FXVM76",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSHOP-26AUGGMV-112000000000",
      "question": "Will Shopify Inc. report Above $112 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above $112 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $112 billion: The listed company's reported gross merchandise volume for the second quarter of 2026, published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff, resolves by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T11:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Shopify Inc. reports Above 112000000000 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 467.51,
      "volume_total_usd": 1106.51,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 112000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B183BCA0C3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gmv",
        "q2-2026",
        "shopify",
        "shopify gross merchandise"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6Q5FJ93PR8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5J02FXVM76",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSHOP-26AUGGMV-116000000000",
      "question": "Will Shopify Inc. report Above $116 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above $116 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $116 billion: The listed company's reported gross merchandise volume for the second quarter of 2026, published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff, resolves by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T11:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Shopify Inc. reports Above 116000000000 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.48,
      "implied_probability": 0.48,
      "volume_24h_usd": 26.31,
      "volume_total_usd": 4830.34,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 116000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-BC9341E723",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gmv",
        "q2-2026",
        "shopify",
        "shopify gross merchandise"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2ZXST1MX96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5J02FXVM76",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSHOP-26AUGGMV-120000000000",
      "question": "Will Shopify Inc. report Above $120 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above $120 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $120 billion: The listed company's reported gross merchandise volume for the second quarter of 2026, published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff, resolves by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T11:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Shopify Inc. reports Above 120000000000 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 519.12,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 120000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-13D14D697C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gmv",
        "q2-2026",
        "shopify",
        "shopify gross merchandise"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FX6DW0F964",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5J02FXVM76",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSHOP-26AUGGMV-124000000000",
      "question": "Will Shopify Inc. report Above $124 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above $124 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $124 billion: The listed company's reported gross merchandise volume for the second quarter of 2026, published by Fiscal.ai and determined by Kalshi staff, resolves by September 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-04T11:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Shopify Inc. reports Above 124000000000 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 42.32,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 124000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-88923E6495",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gmv",
        "q2-2026",
        "shopify",
        "shopify gross merchandise"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5J02FXVM76",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}