{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHTS5VWPM1",
  "slug": "kxsolar-26",
  "question": "Will US solar capacity installed in 2026 exceed 30 GW?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-solar-capacity",
    "renewable-energy",
    "2027-resolution",
    "economic-forecasting",
    "energy-infrastructure"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track total U.S. utility and distributed solar capacity installed in calendar year 2026, measured in direct-current gigawatts. Kalshi structures the event as five discrete strike thresholds: 35, 40, 45, 50, and 55 GWdc. Each strike is an independent binary, collectively forming an implied probability distribution over 2026 installation outcomes. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using the Solar Energy Industries Association's annual Solar Market Insight Report, published in early 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K813Q80WK3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.79,
    "implied_probability": 0.79
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZ6WLHQV28",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHTS5VWPM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSOLAR-26-35",
      "question": "Will at least 35 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 35 GWdc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 35 GWdc: The Solar Energy Industries Association's annual Solar Market Insight Report determines whether the referenced capacity threshold was met in 2026, with resolution by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 35 GWdc of solar capacity is installed in the US in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2023-year-review/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
            "url": "https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2023-year-review/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 720.71,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 35,
      "question_id": "CMX-5C6AF30EEA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "energy",
        "solar",
        "us",
        "us solar capacity"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JHR87B5YG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHTS5VWPM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSOLAR-26-40",
      "question": "Will at least 40 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 40 GWdc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 40 GWdc: The Solar Energy Industries Association's annual Solar Market Insight Report determines whether the referenced capacity threshold was met in 2026, with resolution by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 40 GWdc of solar capacity is installed in the US in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2023-year-review/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
            "url": "https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2023-year-review/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 876.5017,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": "CMX-8FCB4B0A0E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "energy",
        "solar",
        "us",
        "us solar capacity"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K813Q80WK3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHTS5VWPM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSOLAR-26-45",
      "question": "Will at least 45 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 45 GWdc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 45 GWdc: The Solar Energy Industries Association's annual Solar Market Insight Report determines whether the referenced capacity threshold was met in 2026, with resolution by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 45 GWdc of solar capacity is installed in the US in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2023-year-review/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
            "url": "https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2023-year-review/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1838.9778000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 45,
      "question_id": "CMX-3A55D9E0C0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "energy",
        "solar",
        "us",
        "us solar capacity"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C7HB5M1F01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHTS5VWPM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSOLAR-26-50",
      "question": "Will at least 50 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 50 GWdc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 50 GWdc: The Solar Energy Industries Association's annual Solar Market Insight Report determines whether the referenced capacity threshold was met in 2026, with resolution by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 50 GWdc of solar capacity is installed in the US in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2023-year-review/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
            "url": "https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2023-year-review/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1248.36,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-CCB57F2D8E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "energy",
        "solar",
        "us",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-94JB00XFY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHTS5VWPM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSOLAR-26-55",
      "question": "Will at least 55 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 55 GWdc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 55 GWdc: The Solar Energy Industries Association's annual Solar Market Insight Report determines whether the referenced capacity threshold was met in 2026, with resolution by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If at least 55 GWdc of solar capacity is installed in the US in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "name": "Solar Energy Industries Association",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.205,
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      "volume_total_usd": 1587.69425,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 55,
      "question_id": "CMX-E0BE39C5D8",
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "energy",
        "solar",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YHTS5VWPM1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}