{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YSH7DQ1TV1",
  "slug": "kxsothleave-26",
  "question": "Will Mike Johnson be out as Speaker of the House in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-speaker",
    "mike-johnson",
    "political-leadership",
    "congressional-turnover",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Mike Johnson loses the Speaker role before two separate deadlines in 2026. The July 2026 contract prices near-term removal risk; the November 2026 contract prices a longer window. Both resolve via Kalshi staff determination, referencing The New York Times as the authoritative source. The differing deadlines create a term-structure spread on the same binary outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9RZJ7C6697",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYB9F3HWY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YSH7DQ1TV1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSOTHLEAVE-26-JULY",
      "question": "Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?",
      "description": "Before July 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before July 2026: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named officeholder remains in position, based on The New York Times reporting, by November 3, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House has resigned or otherwise left their leadership office after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement that the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House will leave the position also resolves to Yes. If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House leaves office solely because they have passed away, that outcome does not resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The New York Times",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "The New York Times",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11.45,
      "volume_total_usd": 1376.24,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "house-speaker",
        "mike johnson speaker",
        "mike-johnson",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9RZJ7C6697",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YSH7DQ1TV1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSOTHLEAVE-26-NOV",
      "question": "Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?",
      "description": "Before Nov 3, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Nov 3, 2026: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named officeholder remains in position, based on The New York Times reporting, by November 3, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House has resigned or otherwise left their leadership office after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement that the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House will leave the position also resolves to Yes. If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House leaves office solely because they have passed away, that outcome does not resolve to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The New York Times",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "The New York Times",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.44999999999999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 4050.342,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "mike johnson speaker",
        "mike-johnson",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYB9F3HWY9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T15:17:13.134808Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YSH7DQ1TV1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}