{ "_notice": { "type": "free_key_offer", "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.", "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/", "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change." }, "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "slug": "kxsp500addq-26sep30", "question": "Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q3?", "category": "financials", "event_type": "BINARY", "ladder_distribution": null, "tags": [ "financials", "s&p-500-additions", "equity-index-composition", "q3-2026", "corporate-eligibility", "market-structure" ], "catalyst_types": [], "catalyst_dates": [], "editorial_notes": "These markets track potential S&P 500 constituent additions by S&P Dow Jones Indices during Q3 2026. Each binary contract isolates a single candidate company, from SpaceX to Circle Internet Group. S&P Dow Jones Indices announces constituent changes; Kalshi staff determination confirms resolution against those announcements by September 30, 2026. SpaceX's private status makes its eligibility structurally distinct from the other candidates, which are publicly listed.", "venues_covered": [ "kalshi" ], "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FYTY6TXN83", "current_primary_mark": { "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1, "as_of": "2026-09-17T20:26:28.523Z" }, "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00", "markets": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-D9N463MD27", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-SPCX", "question": "Will SpaceX be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "SpaceX", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "SpaceX: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If SpaceX is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.02, "implied_probability": 0.02, "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T06:42:20.345Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 115.51020000000001, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-40999A3C80", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "aerospace", "spacex", "technology" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-BB92XB5464", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-AFRM", "question": "Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Affirm Holdings", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Affirm Holdings: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Affirm Holdings is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.04, "implied_probability": 0.04, "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 8.9472, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-6A6319DB08", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "affirm holdings", "fintech", "payments" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-YPXW8LT5W8", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-SOFI", "question": "Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "SoFi", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "SoFi: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If SoFi is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.01, "implied_probability": 0.01, "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T06:42:20.345Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 254.8591, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-204587540E", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "banking", "fintech", "sofi" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-8SJC6VH028", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-PSTG", "question": "Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Pure Storage", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Pure Storage: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Pure Storage is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:46:04.037Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 7956.030600000001, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-790C051CAA", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "enterprise software", "pure storage", "storage" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": null, "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T21:46:04.037Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-PQ5YJD3QP1", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-TOST", "question": "Will Toast be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Toast", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Toast: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Toast is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.05, "implied_probability": 0.05, "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T14:46:18.800Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 12.4945, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-709668C6D4", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "enterprise software", "restaurant tech", "toast" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-1GZXSMHZX9", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-ALNY", "question": "Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Alnylam Pharmaceuticals", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Alnylam Pharmaceuticals: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.01, "implied_probability": 0.01, "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T19:45:42.272Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 41.4547, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-97D1FFD813", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "alnylam pharmaceuticals", "biotech", "pharma" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-VYN46SBWN6", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-MSTR", "question": "Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Strategy (MicroStrategy)", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Strategy (MicroStrategy): S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Strategy (MicroStrategy) is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.02, "implied_probability": 0.02, "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 71.8096, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-D69E81B4AF", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "analytics", "enterprise software", "microstrategy" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-1FGTLFRDD1", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-RDDT", "question": "Will Reddit be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Reddit", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Reddit: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Reddit is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:46:04.037Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 4048.8770000000004, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-8A950E8D0B", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "internet", "reddit", "social media" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": null, "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T21:46:04.037Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-NG23GPN9N3", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-CRWV", "question": "Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "CoreWeave", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "CoreWeave: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If CoreWeave is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.02, "implied_probability": 0.02, "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T19:45:42.272Z", "volume_24h_usd": 1.8716, "volume_total_usd": 59.52140000000001, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-4E4A183325", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "ai infrastructure", "cloud computing", "coreweave" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-FYTY6TXN83", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-BE", "question": "Will Bloom Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Bloom Energy", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Bloom Energy: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Bloom Energy is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T20:26:28.523Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 44295.9118, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-52BDBFE4D1", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "bloom energy", "energy", "fuel cells" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": null, "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T20:26:28.523Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-5CQXGCRX46", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-TLN", "question": "Will Talen Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Talen Energy", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Talen Energy: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Talen Energy is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.02, "implied_probability": 0.02, "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 2.0424, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-872682C64C", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "energy", "nuclear", "talen energy" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-04HVH8B1M8", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-DUOL", "question": "Will Duolingo be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Duolingo", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Duolingo: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Duolingo is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.02, "implied_probability": 0.02, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:42:17.254Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 7.199800000000001, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-C05DCCE222", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "duolingo", "edtech", "language learning" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-F25DSF2WK5", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-VG", "question": "Will Venture Global be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Venture Global", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Venture Global: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Venture Global is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.07, "implied_probability": 0.07, "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T15:45:48.129Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 21.3521, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-A8E726BBC2", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "energy", "lng", "venture global" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-SH2KR1R8R6", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-CW", "question": "Will Curtiss-Wright Corporation be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Curtiss-Wright Corporation", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Curtiss-Wright Corporation: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Curtiss-Wright Corporation is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.01, "implied_probability": 0.01, "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 7.8737, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-11E9632C75", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "aerospace", "curtiss wright corporation", "defense" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-SMHJPR5TX6", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-GWRE", "question": "Will Guidewire Software be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Guidewire Software", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Guidewire Software: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Guidewire Software is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.02, "implied_probability": 0.02, "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 2.0404, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-6870E6F0F7", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "enterprise software", "guidewire software", "insurance" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-WSBNT99ZM3", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-BWXT", "question": "Will BWX Technologies be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "BWX Technologies", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "BWX Technologies: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If BWX Technologies is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.06, "implied_probability": 0.06, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:42:17.254Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 16.9854, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-F46C24D941", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "bwx technologies", "defense", "nuclear" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-JF0GQPGB77", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-CASY", "question": "Will Casey's General Stores be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Casey's General Stores", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Casey's General Stores: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Casey's General Stores is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.03, "implied_probability": 0.03, "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 238.25310000000002, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-20756DDD05", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "casey general stores", "convenience stores", "retail" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-LLN4KFX8D8", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-NET", "question": "Will Cloudflare be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Cloudflare", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Cloudflare: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Cloudflare is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.03, "implied_probability": 0.03, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:42:17.254Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 109.8975, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-F9F62BCE38", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "cloud computing", "cloudflare", "security" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZDD2YR6KG5", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-SNOW", "question": "Will Snowflake be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Snowflake", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Snowflake: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Snowflake is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.02, "implied_probability": 0.02, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:42:17.254Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 11.2478, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-5FEE84C868", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "cloud computing", "data warehouse", "snowflake" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-KPBYVK01J7", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-CRCL", "question": "Will Circle Internet Group be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Circle Internet Group", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Circle Internet Group: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Circle Internet Group is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.02, "implied_probability": 0.02, "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 2.0214, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-CD575DB8A7", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "blockchain", "circle internet group", "crypto" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-61S9HVQ1Q6", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-RBLX", "question": "Will Roblox be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Roblox", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Roblox: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Roblox is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.05, "implied_probability": 0.05, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:42:17.254Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 35.469500000000004, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-724D2228C5", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "gaming", "metaverse", "roblox" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-2DJ9PS7JS1", "event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXSP500ADDQ-26SEP30-CBRS", "question": "Will Cerebras be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?", "description": "Cerebras", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Cerebras: S&P Global announces index constituents by the September 30, 2026 deadline; Kalshi staff determination confirms whether the listed company was added to the referenced index.", "close_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Cerebras is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "S&P Global", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "sources": [ { "name": "S&P Global", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "index administrator", "url": null, "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial" } ], "source_of_record": "S&P Global", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 96, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.05, "implied_probability": 0.05, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T21:42:17.254Z", "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 292.6265, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": "CMX-60AF195648", "also_on": null, "tags": [ "ai", "cerebras", "semiconductor" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "under_min_maturity" ], "permitted_category": null, "screened_at": "2026-09-17" } ], "last_checked_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:35.412Z", "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T06:01:08.931Z" } ], "resolution_log": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-FYTY6TXN83", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-09-08T20:10:35.530151Z", "deadline_at": null, "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement", "final_price": 1, "recorded_at": "2026-09-17T20:26:28.523Z", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-8SJC6VH028", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": null, "deadline_at": "2026-09-08T19:40:26Z", "occurred_basis": "deadline", "final_price": 1, "recorded_at": "2026-09-17T21:46:04.037Z", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-1FGTLFRDD1", "platform": "kalshi", "event_type": "resolved", "outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": null, "deadline_at": "2026-08-14T17:14:26Z", "occurred_basis": "deadline", "final_price": 1, "recorded_at": "2026-09-17T21:46:04.037Z", "source": "platform_api", "source_ref": null } ], "_provenance": { "source": "clearmarket.fyi", "ref": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7", "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi" } }