{
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    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-44DGF8Z1F9",
  "slug": "kxspacexcount-26aug",
  "question": "SpaceX launches, August 2026",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      13,
      14
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    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 11,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12,
        "prob": 87
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      {
        "threshold": 13,
        "prob": 51
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      {
        "threshold": 14,
        "prob": 18
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      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 5
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      {
        "threshold": 16,
        "prob": 2
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      {
        "threshold": 17,
        "prob": 1
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      {
        "threshold": 18,
        "prob": 1
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    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "spacex",
    "space-launches",
    "quantity-forecast",
    "august-2026",
    "commercial-spaceflight"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the total number of SpaceX launches completed in August 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of discrete strike thresholds, from above 10 through above 18. Each tier prices the probability that the monthly launch count exceeds that specific integer. Kalshi staff determination against SpaceX's public launch schedule resolves all tiers on September 7, 2026 at 14:00 UTC.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-S934YJ0FB8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.18,
    "implied_probability": 0.18
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Above 10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10: SpaceX's public launch schedule resolves on September 7, 2026 at 14:00 UTC based on Kalshi staff determination of launches completed in August 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 10 launches in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4438.31,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-96B8A49867",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GVBMX4WWN5",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26AUG-11",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Above 11",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 11: SpaceX's public launch schedule resolves on September 7, 2026 at 14:00 UTC based on Kalshi staff determination of launches completed in August 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 11 launches in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source": "SpaceX",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 464.22,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": "CMX-FB5DBA1E6C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q7KGR2NK68",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26AUG-12",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Above 12",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12: SpaceX's public launch schedule resolves on September 7, 2026 at 14:00 UTC based on Kalshi staff determination of launches completed in August 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-07T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 12 launches in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.87,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VRNC13HT15",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26AUG-13",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Above 13",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 13: SpaceX's public launch schedule resolves on September 7, 2026 at 14:00 UTC based on Kalshi staff determination of launches completed in August 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 13 launches in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source": "SpaceX",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1701.02,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": "CMX-627A753B87",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S934YJ0FB8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-44DGF8Z1F9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26AUG-14",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Above 14",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 14: SpaceX's public launch schedule resolves on September 7, 2026 at 14:00 UTC based on Kalshi staff determination of launches completed in August 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 14 launches in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "SpaceX",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
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      "last_price": 0.18,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-159213EB66",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F4JMLBLNK5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-44DGF8Z1F9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26AUG-15",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?",
      "description": "Above 15",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 15: SpaceX's public launch schedule resolves on September 7, 2026 at 14:00 UTC based on Kalshi staff determination of launches completed in August 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 15 launches in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "SpaceX",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
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      "last_price": 0.05,
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      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26AUG-16",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 16: SpaceX's public launch schedule resolves on September 7, 2026 at 14:00 UTC based on Kalshi staff determination of launches completed in August 2026.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-09-07T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 16 launches in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
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      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-09-07T14:00:00Z",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26AUG-18",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-09-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 18 launches in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-44DGF8Z1F9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}