{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
  "slug": "kxspacexcount-26b",
  "question": "SpaceX launches, full-year 2026",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      140,
      160
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 120,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 140,
        "prob": 86
      },
      {
        "threshold": 160,
        "prob": 28
      },
      {
        "threshold": 170,
        "prob": 31
      },
      {
        "threshold": 180,
        "prob": 21
      },
      {
        "threshold": 190,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 200,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 210,
        "prob": 5
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "spacex",
    "launches",
    "space-industry",
    "quantitative",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track total SpaceX launches completed in calendar year 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds, ranging from 120 to 210, each pricing whether final count exceeds that level. The implied probability curve across strikes functions as a de facto launch count distribution. The Federal Aviation Administration commercial space launch database is the authoritative source, with Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YPCJJV1606",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.39
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-120",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 120",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 120: Federal Aviation Administration commercial space launch database determines the count by January 7, 2027, with Kalshi staff interpreting the referenced company's launch total.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 30257.549499999997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 120,
      "question_id": "CMX-E00E73E9F2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex",
        "spacex launches"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GK4FDGFPC9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-140",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 140",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 140: Federal Aviation Administration commercial space launch database determines the count by January 7, 2027, with Kalshi staff interpreting the referenced company's launch total.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 140 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
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          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
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          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 46526.9992,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 140,
      "question_id": "CMX-C835B74767",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
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        "spacex",
        "spacex launches"
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          "bucket": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YPCJJV1606",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-160",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 160",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 160: Federal Aviation Administration commercial space launch database determines the count by January 7, 2027, with Kalshi staff interpreting the referenced company's launch total.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 160 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 44.46,
      "volume_total_usd": 55793.575500000006,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 160,
      "question_id": "CMX-A7209DBA05",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex",
        "spacex launches"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HL5676TCM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-170",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 170",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 170: Federal Aviation Administration commercial space launch database determines the count by January 7, 2027, with Kalshi staff interpreting the referenced company's launch total.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 170 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.44,
      "volume_total_usd": 10955.8544,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 170,
      "question_id": "CMX-29A76E42B2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex",
        "spacex launches"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C586T06135",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-180",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 180",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 180: Federal Aviation Administration commercial space launch database determines the count by January 7, 2027, with Kalshi staff interpreting the referenced company's launch total.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 180 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 51.6,
      "volume_total_usd": 8348.3616,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 180,
      "question_id": "CMX-081C07900A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex",
        "spacex launches"
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          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N58RSTXRR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-190",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 190",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 190: Federal Aviation Administration commercial space launch database determines the count by January 7, 2027, with Kalshi staff interpreting the referenced company's launch total.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 190 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 3000.7408,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 190,
      "question_id": "CMX-27B8A528F3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex",
        "spacex launches"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3V2RBF0DP0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-200",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 200",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 200: Federal Aviation Administration commercial space launch database determines the count by January 7, 2027, with Kalshi staff interpreting the referenced company's launch total.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 200 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8.64,
      "volume_total_usd": 2390.6556,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200,
      "question_id": "CMX-C7F08B91FC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex",
        "spacex launches"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JJX8SLHHV6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-210",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 210",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 210: Federal Aviation Administration commercial space launch database determines the count by January 7, 2027, with Kalshi staff interpreting the referenced company's launch total.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 210 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
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