{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
  "slug": "kxspacexcount-26b",
  "question": "SpaceX launches, full-year 2026",
  "category": "technology",
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    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
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      160
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    "strikes": [
      {
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        "prob": 96
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        "prob": 90
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      {
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      {
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    "space-industry",
    "quantitative-prediction",
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track SpaceX's total orbital launch count for calendar year 2026. Kalshi lists nine strike thresholds spanning 120 to 210 launches; the implied distribution across strikes reveals where probability mass concentrates. Kalshi staff will determine the final count from SpaceX's official records by January 7, 2027. No Polymarket equivalent exists here, so cross-platform structural contrast is not applicable.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "last_price": 0.97,
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      "question_id": "CMX-E00E73E9F2",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-140",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
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      "last_price": 0.28,
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      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 160: Kalshi staff will determine the launch count from the listed company's official records by January 7, 2027.",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
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      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 190",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 190 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-210",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 210",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 210: Kalshi staff will determine the launch count from the listed company's official records by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 210 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "SpaceX",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "SpaceX",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 83,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1375.0901999999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 210,
      "question_id": "CMX-93AC3D0488",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}