{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-85TRWRRMV9",
  "slug": "kxspacexcount-26jun",
  "question": "SpaceX launches, 2026",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      13,
      14
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 11,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 13,
        "prob": 87
      },
      {
        "threshold": 14,
        "prob": 42
      },
      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 16,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 18,
        "prob": 2
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "spacex-launches",
    "space-exploration",
    "quantitative-outcome",
    "june-2026",
    "commercial-spaceflight"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track SpaceX's total launch count for June 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a discrete strike ladder, with each contract asking whether total launches exceed a specific threshold. The FAA's commercial space launch database is the authoritative source, reviewed by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026. Implied probabilities across the ladder reveal the market-consensus distribution of expected launch volume.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YZ6JP3BVD3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.42,
    "implied_probability": 0.42
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YCQ1VMWSV5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85TRWRRMV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-10",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10: The Federal Aviation Administration's commercial space launch database, reviewed by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, determines the count of orbital launches by the named company during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 10 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8749.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 47999.89,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-95C69930B5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-86YXXTK4C6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85TRWRRMV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-11",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 11",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 11: The Federal Aviation Administration's commercial space launch database, reviewed by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, determines the count of orbital launches by the named company during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 11 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 936.41,
      "volume_total_usd": 17126.83,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 11,
      "question_id": "CMX-126C1615B4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PP08R7L8R9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85TRWRRMV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-12",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 12",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12: The Federal Aviation Administration's commercial space launch database, reviewed by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, determines the count of orbital launches by the named company during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 12 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1346.67,
      "volume_total_usd": 35423.99,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": "CMX-F1FEAA7171",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FN9KK70M57",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85TRWRRMV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-13",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 13",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 13: The Federal Aviation Administration's commercial space launch database, reviewed by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, determines the count of orbital launches by the named company during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 13 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.87,
      "implied_probability": 0.87,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3219.37,
      "volume_total_usd": 51839.08,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 13,
      "question_id": "CMX-06E5FBF00B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YZ6JP3BVD3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85TRWRRMV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-14",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 14",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 14: The Federal Aviation Administration's commercial space launch database, reviewed by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, determines the count of orbital launches by the named company during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 14 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.42,
      "implied_probability": 0.42,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3109.05,
      "volume_total_usd": 34185.24,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": "CMX-FB6234107C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQWG74CC84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85TRWRRMV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-15",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 15",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 15: The Federal Aviation Administration's commercial space launch database, reviewed by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, determines the count of orbital launches by the named company during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 15 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 548.79,
      "volume_total_usd": 7864.79,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": "CMX-C6F5D78E2D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CRDSW8P8M3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85TRWRRMV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-16",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 16",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 16: The Federal Aviation Administration's commercial space launch database, reviewed by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, determines the count of orbital launches by the named company during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 16 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FAA",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 455.28,
      "volume_total_usd": 2061.52,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 16,
      "question_id": "CMX-ABA589F73E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launches",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G987J8JJP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85TRWRRMV9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-18",
      "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 18",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 18: The Federal Aviation Administration's commercial space launch database, reviewed by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, determines the count of orbital launches by the named company during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX has more than 18 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
            "url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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