{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M056M2TKS7",
  "slug": "kxspacexstarship-14",
  "question": "Will SpaceX conduct a 14th Starship launch?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "spacex",
    "starship",
    "launch-milestone",
    "space-exploration",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether SpaceX conducts its 14th Starship orbital flight attempt across five deadline tiers: August 21, September 1, September 18, October 1, and October 16, 2026. Each binary market nests inside the next, creating a term structure of launch probability across the late-2026 window. Kalshi staff determination relies on SpaceX's official launches page confirming orbital flight achievement. Implied probability differentials between adjacent tiers price the market's view of launch timing risk within each interval.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-19NZXWW035",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.91,
    "implied_probability": 0.91
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6K46Y5QSY2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M056M2TKS7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26AUG21",
      "question": "Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Aug 21, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 21, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 21, 2026: SpaceX's official launches page confirms whether the named vehicle achieved orbital flight before October 1, 2026; Kalshi staff determines resolution by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-21T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 14 After issuance and before Aug 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "SpaceX",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "SpaceX",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 339.84,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BAB37B5938",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launch",
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship launch",
        "starship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BQC9R1XNW1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M056M2TKS7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26SEP01",
      "question": "Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: SpaceX's official launches page confirms whether the named vehicle achieved orbital flight before October 1, 2026; Kalshi staff determines resolution by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 14 After issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "SpaceX",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "SpaceX",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.26,
      "implied_probability": 0.26,
      "volume_24h_usd": 576.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 1783.86,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F200F409B3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launch",
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship launch",
        "starship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RTJ8DPTBD2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M056M2TKS7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26SEP18",
      "question": "Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 18, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 18, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 18, 2026: SpaceX's official launches page confirms whether the named vehicle achieved orbital flight before October 1, 2026; Kalshi staff determines resolution by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-18T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-25T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 14 After issuance and before Sep 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "SpaceX",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "SpaceX",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 82.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 1830.68,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-37EF50CBDF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launch",
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship launch",
        "starship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-19NZXWW035",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M056M2TKS7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26OCT01",
      "question": "Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Oct 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Oct 1, 2026: SpaceX's official launches page confirms whether the named vehicle achieved orbital flight before October 1, 2026; Kalshi staff determines resolution by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 14 After issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "SpaceX",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "SpaceX",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "volume_24h_usd": 295.82,
      "volume_total_usd": 4168.37,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2C72D05381",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launch",
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship launch",
        "starship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V31T2FTMQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M056M2TKS7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26OCT16",
      "question": "Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Oct 16, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Oct 16, 2026: SpaceX's official launches page confirms whether the named vehicle achieved orbital flight before October 1, 2026; Kalshi staff determines resolution by October 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-16T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-23T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 14 After issuance and before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "SpaceX",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "SpaceX",
            "url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "SpaceX",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 1858.2,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1E72AEE024",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "launch",
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship launch",
        "starship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-M056M2TKS7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}