{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q4TP116VW3",
  "slug": "kxspgov-26oct04",
  "question": "Will there be a São Paulo Governor winner by October 4, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "2027-brazilian-elections",
    "são-paulo-governor",
    "brazilian-politics",
    "regional-executive",
    "electoral-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election. Kalshi has structured six separate binary contracts, one per named candidate. Each contract resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination against Tribunal Superior Eleitoral official results. A candidate winning one contract does not auto-resolve others; traders must evaluate each independently.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3S6YFY1KZ2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.95,
    "implied_probability": 0.95
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3S6YFY1KZ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q4TP116VW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPGOV-26OCT04-TFRE",
      "question": "Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?",
      "description": "Tarcísio de Freitas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Tarcísio de Freitas: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral official results for the named candidate's performance in the referenced election, resolved by Kalshi staff by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
            "url": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 24216.6685,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "governor",
        "são paulo",
        "tarc sio de"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X2V41HH7N8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q4TP116VW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPGOV-26OCT04-FHAD",
      "question": "Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?",
      "description": "Fernando Haddad",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fernando Haddad: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral official results for the named candidate's performance in the referenced election, resolved by Kalshi staff by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Fernando Haddad wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
            "url": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 397.85040000000004,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "fernando haddad",
        "governor",
        "são paulo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P03RN6DPL4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q4TP116VW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPGOV-26OCT04-KKAT",
      "question": "Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?",
      "description": "Kim Kataguiri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kim Kataguiri: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral official results for the named candidate's performance in the referenced election, resolved by Kalshi staff by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Kim Kataguiri wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
            "url": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 22.221,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "governor",
        "kim kataguiri",
        "são paulo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FZVH56RLX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q4TP116VW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPGOV-26OCT04-PSER",
      "question": "Will Paulo Serra win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?",
      "description": "Paulo Serra",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Paulo Serra: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral official results for the named candidate's performance in the referenced election, resolved by Kalshi staff by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Paulo Serra wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
            "url": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "governor",
        "paulo serra",
        "são paulo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G0JJ21LJ14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q4TP116VW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPGOV-26OCT04-MFRA",
      "question": "Will Márcio França win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?",
      "description": "Márcio França",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Márcio França: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral official results for the named candidate's performance in the referenced election, resolved by Kalshi staff by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Márcio França wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
            "url": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "governor",
        "rcio fran",
        "são paulo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D4C8DSX1Q2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q4TP116VW3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPGOV-26OCT04-EHIL",
      "question": "Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?",
      "description": "Erika Hilton",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Erika Hilton: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral official results for the named candidate's performance in the referenced election, resolved by Kalshi staff by October 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Erika Hilton wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.\nIf two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nIf both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO\nFor coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements\nOverhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified\n\nFor referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).\nIf multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority\nContested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction\nIn cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails\nThe market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first\nRepeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline\nIf results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
            "url": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "erika hilton",
        "governor",
        "são paulo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Q4TP116VW3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}