{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
  "slug": "kxspxfomc-26jul29",
  "question": "Will the S&P 500 move on the July FOMC meeting day?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fomc-announcement",
    "equity-markets",
    "intraday-volatility",
    "monetary-policy",
    "sp500"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the absolute percentage move in the S&P 500 on July 29, 2026, the July FOMC decision day. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of strike thresholds, from 0.25% to 3.00%, each a discrete binary on realized magnitude. The implied volatility surface across the ladder reveals the market's consensus distribution of FOMC-day shock size. S&P Dow Jones Indices closing levels are the authoritative data source; Kalshi staff determination governs resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PTBWJXMR32",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.91,
    "implied_probability": 0.91
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PTBWJXMR32",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T0.25",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.25%?",
      "description": "At least 0.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 0.25%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 0.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2638.8544,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 0.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-AC49D0590B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 index",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MZRN3LXWH3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T0.50",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.50%?",
      "description": "At least 0.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 0.50%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 0.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 891.1296,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-71EC6C4015",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 index",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3V12DHYP10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T0.75",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.75%?",
      "description": "At least 0.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 0.75%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 0.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.64,
      "implied_probability": 0.64,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.8816,
      "volume_total_usd": 1274.7903999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 0.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-5416B77A26",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 index",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T3SJKD8B72",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T1.00",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%?",
      "description": "At least 1.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1.00%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.44,
      "implied_probability": 0.44,
      "volume_24h_usd": 23.0824,
      "volume_total_usd": 2224.728,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-1D310CC32A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 index",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4XFKBZ3F42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T1.25",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.25%?",
      "description": "At least 1.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1.25%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 1.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 400.3025,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-F4A65ABC0A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 index",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-86K9J61B25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T1.50",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.50%?",
      "description": "At least 1.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1.50%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 1.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 104.07600000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-4B9B49F097",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 index",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VW09K2Z0K8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T1.75",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.75%?",
      "description": "At least 1.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1.75%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 1.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 103.5612,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-14D8CBDA7A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 index",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C7KCQRH2P9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T2.00",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 2.00%?",
      "description": "At least 2.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 2.00%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 2.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-4866F9CF80",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 index",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JW244XDJB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T2.25",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 2.25%?",
      "description": "At least 2.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 2.25%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 2.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
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        "index",
        "volatility"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T2.50",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 2.50%?",
      "description": "At least 2.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 2.50%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 2.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.5204,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": "CMX-6B4EAB0807",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 index",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2J5Q6MM931",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T2.75",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 2.75%?",
      "description": "At least 2.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 2.75%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 2.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "volume_total_usd": 18.1851,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 2.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-6332F134D1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "volatility"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D2NCPR8YD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSPXFOMC-26JUL29-T3.00",
      "question": "Will the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 be at least 3.00%?",
      "description": "At least 3.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 3.00%: The S&P 500 Index closing level on July 29, 2026 compared to prior close, verified by Kalshi staff review of official exchange data by August 5, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T19:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T21:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 3.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 26.8722,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-E39DB885B3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "500 index",
        "equity",
        "index",
        "volatility"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}