{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M5JX55LYT0",
  "slug": "kxstarmercableave-26may",
  "question": "Will at least one member of Starmer's cabinet leave their position before July?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "uk-politics",
    "cabinet-turnover",
    "starmer-government",
    "2026",
    "minister-resignation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These seven Kalshi markets track individual departure risk for named members of Starmer's cabinet through July 2026. Each market is binary and minister-specific, isolating idiosyncratic exit probability per portfolio. All seven resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the same July 2026 deadline. Readers can construct a basket view across ministers or trade single-name separation risk independently.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JYWCNNV0H4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P4GXDD6YD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M5JX55LYT0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-RREE",
      "question": "Will Rachel Reeves be out as Chancellor before July 2026?",
      "description": "Rachel Reeves",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Rachel Reeves: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual remains in the referenced Cabinet position through July 8, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Rachel Reeves leaves as Chancellor before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRachel Reeves must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.\n\nNote: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 44.32,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cabinet",
        "chancellor",
        "labour",
        "rachel reeves",
        "uk-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JYWCNNV0H4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M5JX55LYT0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-WSTR",
      "question": "Will Wes Streeting be out as Health Secretary before July 2026?",
      "description": "Wes Streeting",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Wes Streeting: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual remains in the referenced Cabinet position through July 8, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-14T14:49:23Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Wes Streeting leaves as Health Secretary before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nWes Streeting must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.\n\nNote: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18663.63,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cabinet",
        "health",
        "labour",
        "uk-politics",
        "wes streeting"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TJ7L03W5Z1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M5JX55LYT0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-DLAM",
      "question": "Will David Lammy be out as Deputy PM before July 2026?",
      "description": "David Lammy",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "David Lammy: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual remains in the referenced Cabinet position through July 8, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If David Lammy leaves as Deputy PM before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nDavid Lammy must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.\n\nNote: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 87.86,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cabinet",
        "david lammy",
        "deputy-pm",
        "labour",
        "uk-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BT1SJ6VPQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M5JX55LYT0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-JREY",
      "question": "Will Jonathan Reynolds be out as Chief Whip before July 2026?",
      "description": "Jonathan Reynolds",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jonathan Reynolds: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual remains in the referenced Cabinet position through July 8, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Jonathan Reynolds leaves as Chief Whip before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nJonathan Reynolds must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.\n\nNote: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 463.89,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cabinet",
        "chief-whip",
        "jonathan reynolds",
        "labour",
        "uk-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DVZ1P787Q4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M5JX55LYT0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-SMAH",
      "question": "Will Shabana Mahmood be out as Home Secretary before July 2026?",
      "description": "Shabana Mahmood",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Shabana Mahmood: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual remains in the referenced Cabinet position through July 8, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Shabana Mahmood leaves as Home Secretary before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nShabana Mahmood must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.\n\nNote: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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