{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T49K04CLR1",
  "slug": "kxstoptrade",
  "question": "Will Trump embargo a new country by August 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-trade-policy",
    "embargo-sanctions",
    "executive-action",
    "us-foreign-relations",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Trump issues an executive action imposing a comprehensive trade embargo on a new foreign country. The August 2026 contract closes August 1; the January 2027 contract extends the observation window by five months. Both resolve via Kalshi staff determination referencing White House official statements and records. The staggered deadlines let traders isolate near-term versus medium-term embargo risk across two distinct time horizons.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TJY799KWF2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.22,
    "implied_probability": 0.22
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XN2GY5HKK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T49K04CLR1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSTOPTRADE-26AUG01",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing a comprehensive trade embargo on a new foreign country before Aug 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 1, 2026: The White House official statements and records determine whether the named candidate issued any executive action imposing a comprehensive trade embargo on a new foreign country, resolved by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing a comprehensive trade embargo on a new foreign country before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the White House",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the President of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "the White House",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.011,
      "implied_probability": 0.011,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.12111,
      "volume_total_usd": 148.46282,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "embargo",
        "executive-action",
        "trade",
        "trump",
        "trump country trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TJY799KWF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T49K04CLR1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSTOPTRADE-27JAN01",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing a comprehensive trade embargo on a new foreign country before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: The White House official statements and records determine whether the named candidate issued any executive action imposing a comprehensive trade embargo on a new foreign country, resolved by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing a comprehensive trade embargo on a new foreign country before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the White House",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the President of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the White House",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "volume_24h_usd": 38.5902,
      "volume_total_usd": 4998.0304,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "embargo",
        "executive-action",
        "trade",
        "trump",
        "trump country trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-T49K04CLR1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}