{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
  "slug": "kxsubway-27",
  "question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average by 2027?",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "nyc-subway",
    "transit-ridership",
    "post-pandemic-recovery",
    "urban-infrastructure",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether NYC subway daily ridership recovers to specified fractions of the pre-Covid baseline by January 1, 2027. The MTA's official ridership data serves as the authoritative source, with thresholds at 3.95 million, 4.19 million, and 4.65 million daily riders. All three markets are structured as discrete binary strikes at 85%, 90%, and 100% recovery levels. Kalshi staff determination applies across all three contracts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QLLQCN45F3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.6,
    "implied_probability": 0.6,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCBMBPSWQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSUBWAY-27-3.95",
      "question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach 85% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "3.95 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "3.95 million: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority's official ridership data resolves whether the named transit system reaches the specified percentage of its pre-Covid baseline by January 1, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-08T17:19:19Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 3.95 riders before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe subway had an average daily ridership of 4.65 million persons in 2019.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
            "url": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1601.89,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FDFFE50B42",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "nyc subway ridership",
        "recovery",
        "ridership",
        "subway"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QLLQCN45F3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSUBWAY-27-4.19",
      "question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach 90% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "4.19 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.19 million: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority's official ridership data resolves whether the named transit system reaches the specified percentage of its pre-Covid baseline by January 1, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 4.19 riders before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe subway had an average daily ridership of 4.65 million persons in 2019.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
            "url": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
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        "source_of_record": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.6,
      "implied_probability": 0.6,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4815.24,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1C794F8487",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "nyc subway ridership",
        "recovery",
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        "subway"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0Q5NMNH269",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSUBWAY-27-4.65",
      "question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach 100% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "4.65 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.65 million: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority's official ridership data resolves whether the named transit system reaches the specified percentage of its pre-Covid baseline by January 1, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 4.65 riders before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe subway had an average daily ridership of 4.65 million persons in 2019.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
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        "source_of_record": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.063,
      "volume_total_usd": 140.81939999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DB3D381FAE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "nyc subway ridership",
        "recovery",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MTYC8MBV29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSUBWAY-27-3.72",
      "question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach 80% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "3.72 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "3.72 million: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority's official ridership data resolves whether the named transit system reaches the specified percentage of its pre-Covid baseline by January 1, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-20T20:37:23Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 3.72 riders before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe subway had an average daily ridership of 4.65 million persons in 2019.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
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        "source_citation": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
        "sources": [
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1163.25,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-FEEF099F6E",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCBMBPSWQ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-08T17:24:24.436946Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.97,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MTYC8MBV29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-20T20:42:31.559285Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}