{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
  "slug": "kxsubway-27",
  "question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average by 2027?",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "nyc-transit",
    "ridership-recovery",
    "urban-mobility",
    "post-pandemic-metrics",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether NYC subway daily ridership recovers to discrete thresholds of pre-Covid average levels before January 1, 2027. Kalshi structures four sequential strike levels: 80% (3.72M), 85% (3.95M), 90% (4.19M), and 100% (4.65M) of the pre-Covid baseline, each as a separate binary contract. The MTA's official ridership data, published by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, is the authoritative source for Kalshi staff determination. Higher threshold contracts imply lower probability, creating a natural term structure across the four strikes.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QLLQCN45F3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.56,
    "implied_probability": 0.56
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MTYC8MBV29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSUBWAY-27-3.72",
      "question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach 80% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "3.72 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "3.72 million: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority's official ridership data resolves whether the named transit system reaches the specified percentage of its pre-Covid baseline by January 1, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-20T20:37:23Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 3.72 riders before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe subway had an average daily ridership of 4.65 million persons in 2019.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
            "url": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1163.25,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FEEF099F6E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "nyc subway ridership",
        "ridership",
        "transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCBMBPSWQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSUBWAY-27-3.95",
      "question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach 85% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "3.95 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "3.95 million: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority's official ridership data resolves whether the named transit system reaches the specified percentage of its pre-Covid baseline by January 1, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-08T17:19:19Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 3.95 riders before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe subway had an average daily ridership of 4.65 million persons in 2019.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
            "url": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1601.89,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FDFFE50B42",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "nyc subway ridership",
        "ridership",
        "transit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QLLQCN45F3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSUBWAY-27-4.19",
      "question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach 90% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "4.19 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.19 million: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority's official ridership data resolves whether the named transit system reaches the specified percentage of its pre-Covid baseline by January 1, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 4.19 riders before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe subway had an average daily ridership of 4.65 million persons in 2019.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
            "url": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.19040000000000004,
      "volume_total_usd": 4310.7344,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1C794F8487",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "nyc subway ridership",
        "ridership",
        "transit"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0Q5NMNH269",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXSUBWAY-27-4.65",
      "question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach 100% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "4.65 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.65 million: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority's official ridership data resolves whether the named transit system reaches the specified percentage of its pre-Covid baseline by January 1, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 4.65 riders before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe subway had an average daily ridership of 4.65 million persons in 2019.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
            "url": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 243.1154,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DB3D381FAE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "nyc subway ridership",
        "ridership",
        "transit"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCBMBPSWQ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-08T17:24:24.436946Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.97,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MTYC8MBV29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-20T20:42:31.559285Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.99,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}