{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3Z3KJND5B6",
  "slug": "kxtariffbill",
  "question": "Will new tariffs become law by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "tariffs",
    "trade-policy",
    "us-legislation",
    "2026",
    "economic-policy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Congress will pass tariff legislation signed into law across four sequential deadlines: July 1, September 1, and November 1, 2026, then January 1, 2027. Each deadline is a discrete binary resolved by Kalshi staff determination. The four markets form a term structure; longer-dated contracts imply cumulative probability of legislative action. Resolution excludes executive-order tariffs, covering only enacted legislation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1H15N8XDT5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.46,
    "implied_probability": 0.46
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7C8K2P92H2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3Z3KJND5B6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTARIFFBILL-26JUL01",
      "question": "Will any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs become law before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: Kalshi staff determination of whether legislation imposing new or increased tariffs became law, based on White House records and public law databases, by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For \"become law\" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "White House",
            "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://congress.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 28.63,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "increased tariffs legislation",
        "legislation",
        "tariffs",
        "us-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HD4PRBC0B6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3Z3KJND5B6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTARIFFBILL-26JUL-26SEP01",
      "question": "Will any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs become law before Sep 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: Kalshi staff determination of whether legislation imposing new or increased tariffs became law, based on White House records and public law databases, by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "White House",
            "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://congress.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 136.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "increased tariffs legislation",
        "legislation",
        "tariffs",
        "us-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KFMYNJGVB4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3Z3KJND5B6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTARIFFBILL-26JUL-26NOV01",
      "question": "Will any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs become law before Nov 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Nov 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Nov 1, 2026: Kalshi staff determination of whether legislation imposing new or increased tariffs became law, based on White House records and public law databases, by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "White House",
            "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
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          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://congress.gov",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.42,
      "implied_probability": 0.42,
      "volume_24h_usd": 18.9,
      "volume_total_usd": 3745.89,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "increased tariffs legislation",
        "legislation",
        "tariffs",
        "us-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1H15N8XDT5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3Z3KJND5B6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTARIFFBILL-27JAN01",
      "question": "Will any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs become law before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: Kalshi staff determination of whether legislation imposing new or increased tariffs became law, based on White House records and public law databases, by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For \"become law\" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "White House",
            "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://congress.gov",
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        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.3,
      "volume_total_usd": 4063.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "increased tariffs legislation",
        "legislation",
        "tariffs",
        "us-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7C8K2P92H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3Z3KJND5B6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}