{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1QBQ53ZQW2",
  "slug": "kxtariffrateeu-26jul01",
  "question": "Will the US tariff rate on the EU be a specific value on July 1?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-eu-trade",
    "tariff-policy",
    "2026",
    "trade-relations",
    "economic-policy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the effective US tariff rate applied to EU imports as of July 1, 2026. Seven mutually exclusive Kalshi rate-tier contracts span below 10% through above 60%, covering the full plausible policy range. All seven resolve via Kalshi staff determination referencing ABC News published rate data. The tier structure prices rate level with discrete precision rather than a single binary directional outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-N2MTFD5GY9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QV8LTVZRX6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1QBQ53ZQW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-5",
      "question": "Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Below 10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 10%: Kalshi staff determination of the tariff rate on the named trade partner's imports as published by ABC News on July 1, 2026 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the President of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the United States Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the President of the United States",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15,
      "volume_total_usd": 239.66,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eu",
        "tariffs",
        "us tariff rate",
        "us-eu trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N2MTFD5GY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1QBQ53ZQW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-14",
      "question": "Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Between 10% and 19.99%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Between 10% and 19.99%: Kalshi staff determination of the tariff rate on the named trade partner's imports as published by ABC News on July 1, 2026 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 10 to 19.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the President of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the United States Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the President of the United States",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5304.29,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eu",
        "tariffs",
        "us tariff rate",
        "us-eu trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4WZMXWVVG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1QBQ53ZQW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-24",
      "question": "Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Between 20% and 29.99%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Between 20% and 29.99%: Kalshi staff determination of the tariff rate on the named trade partner's imports as published by ABC News on July 1, 2026 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 20 to 29.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the President of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the United States Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the President of the United States",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 189.96,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eu",
        "tariffs",
        "us tariff rate",
        "us-eu trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J4CM816BQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1QBQ53ZQW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-34",
      "question": "Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Between 30% and 39.99%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Between 30% and 39.99%: Kalshi staff determination of the tariff rate on the named trade partner's imports as published by ABC News on July 1, 2026 resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 30 to 39.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the President of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the United States Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the President of the United States",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.78,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eu",
        "tariffs",
        "us tariff rate",
        "us-eu trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RNTJHSWG15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1QBQ53ZQW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-44",
      "question": "Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Between 40% and 49.99%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Between 40% and 49.99%: Kalshi staff determination of the tariff rate on the named trade partner's imports as published by ABC News on July 1, 2026 resolves the outcome.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 40 to 49.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.\n\n\nExamples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):\n\n\n\n  \nIndia: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%\n\n  \nChina: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%\n\n   \nEuropean Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)\n\n  \nFalkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)",
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