{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-G542FWT549",
  "slug": "kxtbcount-27jan01",
  "question": "Tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      10000,
      11000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 7000,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 8000,
        "prob": 88
      },
      {
        "threshold": 9000,
        "prob": 76
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10000,
        "prob": 50
      },
      {
        "threshold": 11000,
        "prob": 19
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tuberculosis",
    "public-health",
    "us-disease-tracking",
    "epidemiology",
    "health-statistics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track U.S. tuberculosis case counts reported for calendar year 2026. Kalshi structures the event as five discrete strike thresholds: above 7,000, 8,000, 9,000, 10,000, and 11,000 cases. The implied probability curve across strikes lets traders express a view on the full distribution of outcomes, not merely a binary result. The CDC's tuberculosis surveillance data serves as the authoritative source, with Kalshi staff determination settling all contracts by January 8, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SFJTV2KM02",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.19,
    "implied_probability": 0.19
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-99XMSHXFK2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G542FWT549",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTBCOUNT-27JAN01-A7000",
      "question": "Above 7000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 7k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 7k: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tuberculosis surveillance data for 2026 resolves this market on January 8, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of tuberculosis disease cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 7000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "national health agencies",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "national health agencies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CDC",
            "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "national health statistics reporting bodies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Health Organization",
            "url": "https://www.who.int/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CDC",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 651.8112,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7000,
      "question_id": "CMX-9AF273B7AD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "disease",
        "tuberculosis",
        "united states",
        "us tuberculosis cases"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CR9G3SYTN8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G542FWT549",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTBCOUNT-27JAN01-A8000",
      "question": "Above 8000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 8k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 8k: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tuberculosis surveillance data for 2026 resolves this market on January 8, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of tuberculosis disease cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 8000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "national health agencies",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "national health agencies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CDC",
            "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "national health statistics reporting bodies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Health Organization",
            "url": "https://www.who.int/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CDC",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1769.0552,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2FB0DFE897",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "disease",
        "tuberculosis",
        "united states",
        "us tuberculosis cases"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LY7HJV5T45",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G542FWT549",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTBCOUNT-27JAN01-A9000",
      "question": "Above 9000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 9k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 9k: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tuberculosis surveillance data for 2026 resolves this market on January 8, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of tuberculosis disease cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 9000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "national health agencies",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "national health agencies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CDC",
            "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "national health statistics reporting bodies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Health Organization",
            "url": "https://www.who.int/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CDC",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.76,
      "implied_probability": 0.76,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2865.7624,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 9000,
      "question_id": "CMX-64409ECE52",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "disease",
        "tuberculosis",
        "united states",
        "us tuberculosis cases"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-060PKPCV24",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G542FWT549",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTBCOUNT-27JAN01-A10000",
      "question": "Above 10000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 10k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10k: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tuberculosis surveillance data for 2026 resolves this market on January 8, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of tuberculosis disease cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 10000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "national health agencies",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "national health agencies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CDC",
            "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "national health statistics reporting bodies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "World Health Organization",
            "url": "https://www.who.int/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CDC",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1932.165,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10000,
      "question_id": "CMX-FD658376BC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "disease",
        "tuberculosis",
        "united states",
        "us tuberculosis cases"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SFJTV2KM02",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G542FWT549",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTBCOUNT-27JAN01-A11000",
      "question": "Above 11000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026",
      "description": "Above 11k",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 11k: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tuberculosis surveillance data for 2026 resolves this market on January 8, 2027, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the total number of tuberculosis disease cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 11000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nCases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "national health agencies",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "national health agencies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CDC",
            "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/index.html",
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            "name": "national health statistics reporting bodies",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "World Health Organization",
            "url": "https://www.who.int/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 263.6307,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 11000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E009DE9B4D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "disease",
        "tuberculosis",
        "united states",
        "us tuberculosis cases"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-G542FWT549",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}