{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
  "slug": "kxtempnych-26aug0414",
  "question": "Temperature in New York City, August 4, 2026 at 2 PM EDT",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      84,
      85
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 77,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 78,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 79,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 80,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 81,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 82,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 83,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 84,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 85,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 86,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "weather-temperature",
    "nyc-weather",
    "summer-2026",
    "point-prediction",
    "real-world-observable"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 2pm EDT temperature in New York City on August 4, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of ten binary strike thresholds, from 77°F to 86°F. Comparing implied probabilities across strikes reveals the market-consensus temperature distribution. Kalshi staff determination uses The Weather Company's historical temperature record as the authoritative data source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-45ZB6DPVP5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.01,
    "implied_probability": 0.01
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M2XW9BBKV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTEMPNYCH-26AUG0414-T76.99",
      "question": "Will the temp in New York City be above 76.99° on Aug 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT?",
      "description": "77° or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "77° or above: The Weather Company's historical temperature record for New York City on August 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT, retrieved by Kalshi staff, determines the outcome on August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPNYCH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):\n**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 76.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.\nNWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.\nPreliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.\nUse caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Weather Company",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Weather Company",
            "url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Google Weather",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "The Weather Company",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1157.31,
      "volume_total_usd": 1157.31,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 77,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "temperature",
        "temperature york city",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-08G2TT05Z9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTEMPNYCH-26AUG0414-T77.99",
      "question": "Will the temp in New York City be above 77.99° on Aug 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT?",
      "description": "78° or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "78° or above: The Weather Company's historical temperature record for New York City on August 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT, retrieved by Kalshi staff, determines the outcome on August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPNYCH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):\n**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 77.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.\nNWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.\nPreliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.\nUse caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Weather Company",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Weather Company",
            "url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Google Weather",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "The Weather Company",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1132.56,
      "volume_total_usd": 1132.56,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 78,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "temperature",
        "temperature york city",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5Z1CM48V48",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTEMPNYCH-26AUG0414-T78.99",
      "question": "Will the temp in New York City be above 78.99° on Aug 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT?",
      "description": "79° or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "79° or above: The Weather Company's historical temperature record for New York City on August 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT, retrieved by Kalshi staff, determines the outcome on August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPNYCH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):\n**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 78.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.\nNWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.\nPreliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.\nUse caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Weather Company",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Weather Company",
            "url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Google Weather",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "The Weather Company",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1355.31,
      "volume_total_usd": 1355.31,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 79,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "temperature",
        "temperature york city",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KN8CKJVWD4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTEMPNYCH-26AUG0414-T79.99",
      "question": "Will the temp in New York City be above 79.99° on Aug 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT?",
      "description": "80° or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "80° or above: The Weather Company's historical temperature record for New York City on August 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT, retrieved by Kalshi staff, determines the outcome on August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPNYCH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):\n**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 79.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.\nNWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.\nPreliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.\nUse caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Weather Company",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Weather Company",
            "url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Google Weather",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "The Weather Company",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1600.83,
      "volume_total_usd": 1600.83,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 80,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "temperature",
        "temperature york city",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-30N8W7NC39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTEMPNYCH-26AUG0414-T80.99",
      "question": "Will the temp in New York City be above 80.99° on Aug 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT?",
      "description": "81° or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "81° or above: The Weather Company's historical temperature record for New York City on August 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT, retrieved by Kalshi staff, determines the outcome on August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPNYCH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):\n**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 80.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.\nNWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.\nPreliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.\nUse caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Weather Company",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Weather Company",
            "url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Google Weather",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "The Weather Company",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1879.07,
      "volume_total_usd": 2513.7,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 81,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "temperature",
        "temperature york city",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HQXTGTJPJ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTEMPNYCH-26AUG0414-T81.99",
      "question": "Will the temp in New York City be above 81.99° on Aug 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT?",
      "description": "82° or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "82° or above: The Weather Company's historical temperature record for New York City on August 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT, retrieved by Kalshi staff, determines the outcome on August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPNYCH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):\n**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 81.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.\nNWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.\nPreliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.\nUse caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Weather Company",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Weather Company",
            "url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Google Weather",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "The Weather Company",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1491.53,
      "volume_total_usd": 1579.12,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 82,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "temperature",
        "temperature york city",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GH0FS7TQ22",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTEMPNYCH-26AUG0414-T82.99",
      "question": "Will the temp in New York City be above 82.99° on Aug 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT?",
      "description": "83° or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "83° or above: The Weather Company's historical temperature record for New York City on August 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT, retrieved by Kalshi staff, determines the outcome on August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPNYCH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):\n**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 82.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.\nNWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.\nPreliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.\nUse caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Weather Company",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Weather Company",
            "url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NWS Climatological Reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Google Weather",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "The Weather Company",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2774.48,
      "volume_total_usd": 4476,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 83,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "temperature",
        "temperature york city",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZCMV8WSDT2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTEMPNYCH-26AUG0414-T83.99",
      "question": "Will the temp in New York City be above 83.99° on Aug 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT?",
      "description": "84° or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "84° or above: The Weather Company's historical temperature record for New York City on August 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT, retrieved by Kalshi staff, determines the outcome on August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPNYCH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):\n**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 83.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.\nNWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.\nPreliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.\nUse caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-45ZB6DPVP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTEMPNYCH-26AUG0414-T84.99",
      "question": "Will the temp in New York City be above 84.99° on Aug 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT?",
      "description": "85° or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "85° or above: The Weather Company's historical temperature record for New York City on August 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT, retrieved by Kalshi staff, determines the outcome on August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPNYCH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):\n**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 84.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.\nNWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.\nPreliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.\nUse caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "volume_total_usd": 15.74,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTEMPNYCH-26AUG0414-T85.99",
      "question": "Will the temp in New York City be above 85.99° on Aug 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT?",
      "description": "86° or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "86° or above: The Weather Company's historical temperature record for New York City on August 4, 2026 at 2pm EDT, retrieved by Kalshi staff, determines the outcome on August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T18:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPNYCH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):\n**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.\n[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]\n\nIf the temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KNYC), is above 85.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.\nNWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.\nPreliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.\nUse caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Weather Company",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
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          {
            "name": "The Weather Company",
            "url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Google Weather",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "The Weather Company",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.36,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.36,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 86,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nyc",
        "temperature",
        "temperature york city",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MSJP4Y6537",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}