{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWL4XW2R90",
  "slug": "kxthegambiapres-26",
  "question": "Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "gambian-politics",
    "presidential-election",
    "2027",
    "west-africa",
    "political-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These four Kalshi markets collectively price the outcome of the next Gambian presidential election, expected by December 2026. Each market isolates a single candidate: Adama Barrow, Ousainou Darboe, Essa Faal, and Mama Kandeh. The four contracts are mutually exclusive; exactly one resolves true. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination based on the Gambian electoral authority's formal proclamation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GQ7Y0TS977",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.7,
    "implied_probability": 0.7
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GQ7Y0TS977",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWL4XW2R90",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTHEGAMBIAPRES-26-ABAR",
      "question": "Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?",
      "description": "Adama Barrow",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Adama Barrow: The Gambian electoral authority's formal proclamation of the presidential election winner by December 31, 2026 resolves the named candidate's victory.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Gambian presidential election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is Adama Barrow, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4412.387,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "adama barrow",
        "gambia",
        "presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5SZH32F5M6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWL4XW2R90",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTHEGAMBIAPRES-26-ODAR",
      "question": "Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?",
      "description": "Ousainou Darboe",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ousainou Darboe: The Gambian electoral authority's formal proclamation of the presidential election winner by December 31, 2026 resolves the named candidate's victory.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Gambian presidential election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is Ousainou Darboe, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1244.64,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gambia",
        "ousainou darboe",
        "presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9QXZW1H6L6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWL4XW2R90",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTHEGAMBIAPRES-26-EFAA",
      "question": "Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?",
      "description": "Essa Faal",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Essa Faal: The Gambian electoral authority's formal proclamation of the presidential election winner by December 31, 2026 resolves the named candidate's victory.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Gambian presidential election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is Essa Faal, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.28800000000000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "essa faal",
        "gambia",
        "presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4DBGTMDVJ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWL4XW2R90",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTHEGAMBIAPRES-26-MKAN",
      "question": "Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?",
      "description": "Mama Kandeh",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Mama Kandeh: The Gambian electoral authority's formal proclamation of the presidential election winner by December 31, 2026 resolves the named candidate's victory.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the winner of the next Gambian presidential election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is Mama Kandeh, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.192,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gambia",
        "mama kandeh",
        "presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-QWL4XW2R90",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}