{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MMHQXTPM2",
  "slug": "kxtopmodel-26jul27",
  "question": "Will there be a new top AI model this week?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-models",
    "technology-rankings",
    "weekly-resolution",
    "model-performance",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model ranks first on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of July 27, 2026. All four markets are Kalshi-native, each pricing a discrete model candidate: Claude Opus 4 (standard and thinking variants), Claude Opus 4.7, and Claude Fable 5. Together they form a mutually exclusive set of outcome strikes on the same underlying ranking event. Resolution is via Kalshi staff determination referencing the LM Arena snapshot on the close date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0Z9YPG22C8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.95,
    "implied_probability": 0.95
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0Z9YPG22C8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MMHQXTPM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL27-CLAUT",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-6-thinking",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6-thinking: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of July 27, 2026 14:00 UTC resolves which listed model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 19131.7745,
      "volume_total_usd": 65190.2825,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-38087B42DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus thinking",
        "model-ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PF5SC3KC61",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MMHQXTPM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL27-CLAU",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-6",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of July 27, 2026 14:00 UTC resolves which listed model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-6 is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 49.765299999999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 215.7666,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F5EDC96EB9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus",
        "model-ranking"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JB212V8PD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MMHQXTPM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL27-CLAU7",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-7",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-7: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of July 27, 2026 14:00 UTC resolves which listed model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-7 is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.8054,
      "volume_total_usd": 9.3342,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-26FFA7BF18",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude opus",
        "model-ranking"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5715CP2Y78",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MMHQXTPM2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL27-CLAUF",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-fable-5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-fable-5: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings as of July 27, 2026 14:00 UTC resolves which listed model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-fable-5 is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_total_usd": 184.02169999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E1F0339147",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "claude",
        "claude fable",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4MMHQXTPM2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}