{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
  "slug": "kxtopmodel-26jul31",
  "question": "Will the top AI model in July be determined by a specific benchmark or evaluation metric?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-models",
    "technology-rankings",
    "monthly-resolution",
    "2026",
    "model-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model will hold the top position on the LM Arena Leaderboard as of July 31, 2026. Each Kalshi contract prices one specific model, collectively spanning Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, Baidu, and other entrants. Kalshi staff determination resolves each binary independently against the same leaderboard snapshot. The LM Arena Leaderboard, operated by LMSYS, is the authoritative ranking source for resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-W15RHX4RR9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.82,
    "implied_probability": 0.82
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W15RHX4RR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-CLAUT",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-6-thinking",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6-thinking: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard rankings as of July 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC resolves which model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.82,
      "implied_probability": 0.82,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1168.3031999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 43374.4412,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5609DE7733",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "claude",
        "claude opus thinking",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KTBTK4D6P7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-CLAU",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-6",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard rankings as of July 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC resolves which model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-6 is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.679200000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 173.5136,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C801291363",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "claude",
        "claude opus",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3XQXBJLP62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-GEMI",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard rankings as of July 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC resolves which model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If gemini-3.1-pro-preview is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 37.2594,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-191F75BF31",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "gemini",
        "gemini pro preview",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9MP0K2QCM0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-CLAUT7",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-7-thinking",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-7-thinking: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard rankings as of July 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC resolves which model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-7-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 49.252,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-981799B17A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "claude",
        "claude opus thinking",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QJ7XHVNH10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-CLAU7",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-7",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-7: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard rankings as of July 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC resolves which model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-7 is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7.4813,
      "volume_total_usd": 52.078900000000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-00F0E106A5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "claude",
        "claude opus",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JB9N7P3WW0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-GEMI3",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "gemini-3-pro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "gemini-3-pro: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard rankings as of July 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC resolves which model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If gemini-3-pro is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 38.9794,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A5F88A90FF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "gemini",
        "gemini pro",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-391FZ19NL4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-MUSE",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "muse-spark",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "muse-spark: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard rankings as of July 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC resolves which model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If muse-spark is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 66.00399999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6BB0D3711D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "muse",
        "muse spark",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-336LJ4B820",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-GPT",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "gpt-5.5-high",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "gpt-5.5-high: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard rankings as of July 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC resolves which model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If gpt-5.5-high is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 77.7676,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0F899F7BF4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "gpt",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G9DC6WP707",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-ERNIE",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "ernie-5.1-preview",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "ernie-5.1-preview: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard rankings as of July 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC resolves which model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ernie-5.1-preview is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 43.714,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-72D6720E50",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "ernie",
        "ernie preview",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PSML4QHHP9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-CLAUF",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-fable-5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-fable-5: Kalshi staff determination based on LM Arena Leaderboard rankings as of July 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC resolves which model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-fable-5 is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 573.9615,
      "volume_total_usd": 2021.1930000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FEF3555DD3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "claude",
        "claude fable",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SG9Y4N1QP4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}