{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
  "slug": "kxtopmodel-26jun06",
  "question": "Will a new top AI model be released this week?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "ai-models",
    "weekly-resolution",
    "technology",
    "model-ranking",
    "artificial-intelligence",
    "2026"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model ranks first on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 6, 2026. All ten contracts are Kalshi-listed, each pricing a discrete named-model outcome against the same leaderboard snapshot. The markets are structurally parallel, not complementary, offering no cross-platform insight. Resolution is via Kalshi staff determination against the LM Arena ranking at close.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-16Y8Q7DS43",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN06-CLAUT",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-6-thinking",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings at market close on June 6, 2026 determine the top AI model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 2124.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 11791.3,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-24086A2B8F",
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN06-CLAU",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-6",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings at market close on June 6, 2026 determine the top AI model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-6 is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
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      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question_id": "CMX-515CC5BDAF",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XYC9FK1KV1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN06-CLAUT7",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-7-thinking",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings at market close on June 6, 2026 determine the top AI model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-7-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
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        "caps": [],
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.94,
      "volume_total_usd": 44.72,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-44413AF273",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LBK8B6Y4H7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN06-CLAU7",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-7",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings at market close on June 6, 2026 determine the top AI model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-7 is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN06-GEMI3",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "gemini-3-pro",
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      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings at market close on June 6, 2026 determine the top AI model.",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-0895D92838",
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN06-MUSE",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "muse-spark",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings at market close on June 6, 2026 determine the top AI model.",
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      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If muse-spark is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "caps": [],
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-248E8715BB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN06-GPT",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "gpt-5.5-high",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) rankings at market close on June 6, 2026 determine the top AI model.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-06T14:00:00Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If gpt-5.5-high is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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      "question_id": "CMX-91A9C825DE",
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN06-ERNIE",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "ernie-5.1-preview",
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      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If ernie-5.1-preview is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": null,
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      },
      "rcg": {
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      },
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-248E8715BB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1CB408FA3E",
      "also_on": null,
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  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SRLZST7GW2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}