{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
  "slug": "kxtopmodel-26jun13",
  "question": "Will there be a new top AI model this week?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-models",
    "technology-rankings",
    "weekly-resolution",
    "performance-benchmarks",
    "llm-competition"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI model holds the top rank on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, at 14:00 UTC. Each Kalshi contract prices a discrete binary outcome for one named model. Collectively, the ten contracts form a mutually exclusive, exhaustive set across competing candidates. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the leaderboard snapshot at the specified timestamp.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XTFXCTX8H1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XTFXCTX8H1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13-CLAUT",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-6-thinking",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6-thinking: The top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines the outcome; Kalshi staff will verify and resolve accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3771.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 45915.36,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3E7427C15B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "claude opus thinking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7M5Y3BS2J5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13-CLAU",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-6",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-6: The top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines the outcome; Kalshi staff will verify and resolve accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-6 is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 71.31,
      "volume_total_usd": 235.52,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-007653EC5B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-39V89Y3940",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13-GEMI",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview: The top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines the outcome; Kalshi staff will verify and resolve accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If gemini-3.1-pro-preview is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.3,
      "volume_total_usd": 33.08,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-77945DF690",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "gemini",
        "gemini pro preview",
        "google"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N08KMVCGT0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13-CLAUT7",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-7-thinking",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-7-thinking: The top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines the outcome; Kalshi staff will verify and resolve accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-7-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 54.25,
      "volume_total_usd": 185.77,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-32812BC8F8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "claude opus thinking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GXLR0WHMF7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13-CLAU7",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "claude-opus-4-7",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "claude-opus-4-7: The top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines the outcome; Kalshi staff will verify and resolve accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If claude-opus-4-7 is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 92.65,
      "volume_total_usd": 183.67,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3F896619DE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "claude",
        "claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G5B0WBR3Z2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13-GEMI3",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "gemini-3-pro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "gemini-3-pro: The top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines the outcome; Kalshi staff will verify and resolve accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If gemini-3-pro is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.47,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-814EB676D1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "gemini",
        "gemini pro",
        "google"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JQTP90DVN1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13-MUSE",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "muse-spark",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "muse-spark: The top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines the outcome; Kalshi staff will verify and resolve accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If muse-spark is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.27,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E173914B6B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "muse",
        "muse spark"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QCSD94BVH3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13-GPT",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "gpt-5.5-high",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "gpt-5.5-high: The top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines the outcome; Kalshi staff will verify and resolve accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If gpt-5.5-high is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.01,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C11E149545",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "gpt",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CR468M7VW1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13-ERNIE",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "ernie-5.1-preview",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "ernie-5.1-preview: The top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines the outcome; Kalshi staff will verify and resolve accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ernie-5.1-preview is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.27,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C1FBC2ACF9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "baidu",
        "ernie",
        "ernie preview"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PW0W74PBT2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOPMODEL-26JUN13-QWEN",
      "question": "What will be the top AI model this month?",
      "description": "qwen3.5-max-preview",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "qwen3.5-max-preview: The top-ranked model on the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as of June 13, 2026, 14:00 UTC determines the outcome; Kalshi staff will verify and resolve accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If qwen3.5-max-preview is the top-ranked AI model on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIf two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.27,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F9BB6DC7F3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "alibaba",
        "qwen",
        "qwen3 max preview"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XTFXCTX8H1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T14:46:33.381898Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7M5Y3BS2J5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T14:46:33.381898Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-39V89Y3940",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T14:46:33.381898Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N08KMVCGT0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T14:46:33.381898Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GXLR0WHMF7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T14:46:33.381898Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G5B0WBR3Z2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T14:46:33.381898Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JQTP90DVN1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T14:46:33.381898Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QCSD94BVH3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T14:46:33.381898Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CR468M7VW1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T14:46:33.381898Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PW0W74PBT2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T14:46:33.381898Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KJZTC6KZM1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}