{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
  "slug": "kxtornado-26jul",
  "question": "Tornadoes in July",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      125,
      150
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 25,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 50,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 75,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 100,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 125,
        "prob": 68
      },
      {
        "threshold": 150,
        "prob": 28
      },
      {
        "threshold": 175,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 200,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 225,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 250,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 275,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "tornadoes",
    "weather-forecasting",
    "us-climate",
    "2026",
    "july"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the NOAA monthly tornado count for July 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of discrete strike thresholds, from 25 to 275 tornadoes, each a separate binary contract. The implied distribution across strikes lets traders read a synthetic probability curve over the count range. Kalshi staff determination resolves all contracts against NOAA's official July 2026 figure reported by August 1, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D6XM90GR01",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.1,
    "implied_probability": 0.1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P74ZRQDFS6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUL-25",
      "question": "Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in July?",
      "description": "Above 25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 25: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly tornado count for July 2026 reported by August 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the count exceeds 100.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jul is above 25 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 580.8330000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "july",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes july",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3C5GW29KQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUL-50",
      "question": "Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in July?",
      "description": "Above 50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 50: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly tornado count for July 2026 reported by August 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the count exceeds 100.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jul is above 50 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1280.2779,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "july",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes july",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9G2PFF5PW5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUL-75",
      "question": "Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in July?",
      "description": "Above 75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 75: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly tornado count for July 2026 reported by August 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the count exceeds 100.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jul is above 75 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7321.891500000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 75,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "july",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes july",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SCJJPLKTT3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUL-100",
      "question": "Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in July?",
      "description": "Above 100",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 100: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly tornado count for July 2026 reported by August 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the count exceeds 100.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jul is above 100 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 195.6735,
      "volume_total_usd": 14238.5364,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "july",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes july",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XY695HF9N4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUL-125",
      "question": "Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in July?",
      "description": "Above 125",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 125: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly tornado count for July 2026 reported by August 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the count exceeds 100.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jul is above 125 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "volume_24h_usd": 357.8245,
      "volume_total_usd": 7096.8748000000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 125,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "july",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes july",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D6XM90GR01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUL-150",
      "question": "Will there be more than 150 tornadoes in July?",
      "description": "Above 150",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 150: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly tornado count for July 2026 reported by August 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the count exceeds 100.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jul is above 150 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 18.222,
      "volume_total_usd": 918.484,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 150,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "july",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes july",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RDPLZ3GCT7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUL-175",
      "question": "Will there be more than 175 tornadoes in July?",
      "description": "Above 175",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 175: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly tornado count for July 2026 reported by August 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the count exceeds 100.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jul is above 175 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.9748000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 62.28,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 175,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "july",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes july",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DSNB2Q7GT6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUL-200",
      "question": "Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in July?",
      "description": "Above 200",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 200: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly tornado count for July 2026 reported by August 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination of whether the count exceeds 100.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jul is above 200 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 97,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.0301,
      "volume_total_usd": 18.1444,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "july",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes july",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XRSXB5LR10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUL-225",
      "question": "Will there be more than 225 tornadoes in July?",
      "description": "Above 225",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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