{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y0JJ5168N1",
  "slug": "kxtornado-26jun",
  "question": "Tornadoes in the United States, June 2026",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      275,
      null
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 25,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 50,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 75,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 100,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 125,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 150,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 175,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 200,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 225,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 250,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 275,
        "prob": 100
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "weather-forecasting",
    "severe-weather",
    "us-meteorology",
    "june-2026",
    "quantitative-prediction"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center's monthly tornado count for June 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of eleven discrete strike thresholds, from 25 to 275 tornadoes, each resolved independently via Kalshi staff determination. Implied probability differences between adjacent strikes express the market's view of count distribution across each 25-tornado interval. NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts can be revised, so final settlement figures may differ from early post-month tallies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5GNGXM3722",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M06XNJ3HB7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y0JJ5168N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUN-25",
      "question": "Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in June?",
      "description": "Above 25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 25: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center monthly tornado count for June 2026, reported by July 1, 2026, determines whether the count exceeds the listed threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 25 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1851.68,
      "volume_total_usd": 2396.88,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "natural-disaster",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes june",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PK0VJLN1D1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y0JJ5168N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUN-50",
      "question": "Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in June?",
      "description": "Above 50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 50: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center monthly tornado count for June 2026, reported by July 1, 2026, determines whether the count exceeds the listed threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 50 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 97.59,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "natural-disaster",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes june",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-30ZDYY0YF5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y0JJ5168N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUN-75",
      "question": "Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in June?",
      "description": "Above 75",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 75: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center monthly tornado count for June 2026, reported by July 1, 2026, determines whether the count exceeds the listed threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 75 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2324.45,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 75,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "natural-disaster",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes june",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1HQ89YTK84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y0JJ5168N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUN-100",
      "question": "Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in June?",
      "description": "Above 100",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 100: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center monthly tornado count for June 2026, reported by July 1, 2026, determines whether the count exceeds the listed threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 100 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 154.79,
      "volume_total_usd": 2499.02,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "natural-disaster",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes june",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M5BLXNNVD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y0JJ5168N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUN-125",
      "question": "Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in June?",
      "description": "Above 125",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 125: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center monthly tornado count for June 2026, reported by July 1, 2026, determines whether the count exceeds the listed threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 125 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 534.47,
      "volume_total_usd": 4470.38,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 125,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "natural-disaster",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes june",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z39YG24F26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y0JJ5168N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUN-150",
      "question": "Will there be more than 150 tornadoes in June?",
      "description": "Above 150",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 150: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center monthly tornado count for June 2026, reported by July 1, 2026, determines whether the count exceeds the listed threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 150 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1268.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 6538.34,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 150,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "natural-disaster",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes june",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0RD6GQKCF8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y0JJ5168N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUN-175",
      "question": "Will there be more than 175 tornadoes in June?",
      "description": "Above 175",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 175: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center monthly tornado count for June 2026, reported by July 1, 2026, determines whether the count exceeds the listed threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 175 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Storm Reports Legend",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1424.86,
      "volume_total_usd": 7306.83,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 175,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "natural-disaster",
        "tornadoes",
        "tornadoes june",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5GQC15S372",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y0JJ5168N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORNADO-26JUN-200",
      "question": "Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in June?",
      "description": "Above 200",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 200: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center monthly tornado count for June 2026, reported by July 1, 2026, determines whether the count exceeds the listed threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 200 , then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe number of tornadoes will be determined by the \"Storm Reports Legend\" shown in the bottom left corner of the \"Preliminary Report Summary.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
        "sources": [
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