{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFPCK8C4V4",
  "slug": "kxtorontomayor-26oct26",
  "question": "Will there be a Toronto mayoral election winner by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "toronto-politics",
    "mayoral-election",
    "canada-elections",
    "2027-election",
    "municipal-government"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2026 Toronto mayoral election. Each Kalshi contract isolates a single named candidate, requiring traders to price individual win probability rather than field-wide outcome. All four contracts resolve via Kalshi staff determination against Toronto's municipal electoral authority official proclamation. Resolution is expected by October 26, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QZX18Y3WZ8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.89,
    "implied_probability": 0.89,
    "as_of": "2026-08-28T06:00:59.261Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZX18Y3WZ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFPCK8C4V4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORONTOMAYOR-26OCT26-OCHO",
      "question": "Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "Olivia Chow",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Olivia Chow: Toronto's municipal electoral authority official proclamation of the named candidate's election outcome by October 26, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Olivia Chow wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T06:00:59.261Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9798.9534,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "chow",
        "mayor",
        "olivia chow",
        "toronto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DXKJT3FJY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFPCK8C4V4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORONTOMAYOR-26OCT26-JTOR",
      "question": "Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "John Tory",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "John Tory: Toronto's municipal electoral authority official proclamation of the named candidate's election outcome by October 26, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If John Tory wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6.372,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "john tory",
        "mayor",
        "toronto",
        "tory"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V0T9BSS2N0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFPCK8C4V4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORONTOMAYOR-26OCT26-BBRA",
      "question": "Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "Brad Bradford",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Brad Bradford: Toronto's municipal electoral authority official proclamation of the named candidate's election outcome by October 26, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Brad Bradford wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T06:00:59.261Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 479.0736,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "brad bradford",
        "bradford",
        "mayor",
        "toronto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M3NZ6G72M0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RFPCK8C4V4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTORONTOMAYOR-26OCT26-AFUR",
      "question": "Will Anthony Furey win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "Anthony Furey",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthony Furey: Toronto's municipal electoral authority official proclamation of the named candidate's election outcome by October 26, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthony Furey wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "anthony furey",
        "furey",
        "mayor",
        "toronto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-RFPCK8C4V4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}