{
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMHJ1FX1V6",
  "slug": "kxtradedealcuba-27",
  "question": "Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-administration",
    "us-cuba-relations",
    "trade-policy",
    "announcement-based",
    "2026"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether President Trump will formally announce a trade deal with Cuba across three sequential deadlines. The May 2026, August 2026, and January 2027 contracts are nested probability tiers: a longer horizon implies higher cumulative likelihood. All three resolve via Kalshi staff determination referencing MSNBC reporting. Cuba remains under a U.S. trade embargo, making any such announcement a significant policy reversal.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4GH9DHT8J8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.3
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMHJ1FX1V6",
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      "question": "Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before May 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before May 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 1, 2026: Kalshi staff determination based on MSNBC reporting will resolve whether the named candidate announces a trade deal with the referenced country before January 1, 2027, with final resolution by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPreliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.\nCuba must also acknowledge the agreement.\nA mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or \"explore a trade deal\" is not sufficient.\nIf the U.S. and Cuba are part of a multilateral trade agreement announced within the timeframe, it is included.",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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