{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
  "slug": "kxtropstorm-26dec01",
  "question": "Atlantic tropical storms, 2026",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      14,
      16
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 73
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12,
        "prob": 64
      },
      {
        "threshold": 14,
        "prob": 52
      },
      {
        "threshold": 16,
        "prob": 27
      },
      {
        "threshold": 18,
        "prob": 18
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 25,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30,
        "prob": 2
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "atlantic-tropical-storms",
    "2026-weather",
    "seasonal-forecast",
    "climate-events",
    "quantitative-weather"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's final storm count against discrete thresholds. Kalshi staff determination resolves each binary strike independently, producing an implied probability distribution across count levels from 10 to 30. The authoritative source is NOAA's official Atlantic hurricane count for 2026. Markets close December 2, 2026, before final seasonal tallies are typically confirmed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-N3DFDMW242",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.1,
    "implied_probability": 0.1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RN6RBW1TC6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T10",
      "question": "Will there be more than 10  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 10",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's official Atlantic hurricane count for 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination on or after December 2, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 10 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1398.175,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4QPWHZWQ31",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T12",
      "question": "Will there be more than 12  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 12",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's official Atlantic hurricane count for 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination on or after December 2, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 12 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "volume_24h_usd": 27.950400000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 1050.0003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-98BZ18FVQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T14",
      "question": "Will there be more than 14  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 14",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 14: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's official Atlantic hurricane count for 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination on or after December 2, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 14 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.4454000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 1022.5126,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N3DFDMW242",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16",
      "question": "Will there be more than 16  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 16",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 16: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's official Atlantic hurricane count for 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination on or after December 2, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 16 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 766.658,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 16,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DH9VTJ1712",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18",
      "question": "Will there be more than 18  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 18",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 18: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's official Atlantic hurricane count for 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination on or after December 2, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 18 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1177.5828,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 18,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D8QNTFGMM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T20",
      "question": "Will there be more than 20  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 20",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 20: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's official Atlantic hurricane count for 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination on or after December 2, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 20 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12.5262,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MHJ60553Y8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T25",
      "question": "Will there be more than 25  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 25: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's official Atlantic hurricane count for 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination on or after December 2, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 25 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6.4836,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "atlantic",
        "atlantic hurricanes",
        "hurricanes",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H207333261",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T30",
      "question": "Will there be more than 30  Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 30",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 30: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's official Atlantic hurricane count for 2026, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination on or after December 2, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-02T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-02T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 30 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
            "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NOAA's National Hurricane Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}