{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJ9H5KDRH5",
  "slug": "kxtruev-26aug04",
  "question": "Truflation EV Commodity Index, August 4, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1242,
      1252
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1162,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1172,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1182,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1192,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1202,
        "prob": 99
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      {
        "threshold": 1212,
        "prob": 99
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      {
        "threshold": 1222,
        "prob": 95
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      {
        "threshold": 1232,
        "prob": 77
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      {
        "threshold": 1242,
        "prob": 67
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      {
        "threshold": 1252,
        "prob": 31
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      {
        "threshold": 1262,
        "prob": 4
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      {
        "threshold": 1272,
        "prob": 2
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      {
        "threshold": 1282,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1292,
        "prob": 1
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      {
        "threshold": 1302,
        "prob": 1
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    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "ev-commodities",
    "price-index",
    "truflation",
    "economics-2026",
    "commodities-market"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Truflation EV Commodity Index reading on August 4, 2026. Kalshi structures all 15 contracts as binary strikes against discrete index thresholds, ranging from 1161.89 to 1301.89. Taken together, they form an implied probability distribution over the index level. Kalshi staff determination uses the index value as published at truflation.com.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KYZ0W5DGR7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.31,
    "implied_probability": 0.31
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X8M6CG2B42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJ9H5KDRH5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUEV-26AUG04-T1161.89",
      "question": "Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 be above 1161.89?",
      "description": "Above 1161.89",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1161.89: Kalshi staff determination based on Truflation's EV Commodity Index value as published at truflation.com/marketplace/ev-index on August 4, 2026, resolved by August 12, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 is above 1161.89, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Truflation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://truflation.com/marketplace/ev-index",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Truflation",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 1287.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 1287.99,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-6602EB5C54",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2KBY10ZZC0",
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      "question": "Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 be above 1171.89?",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 is above 1171.89, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z9VYG158S6",
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      "question": "Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 be above 1181.89?",
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      "question_id": "CMX-C364D50827",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5KWYRPZJ42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJ9H5KDRH5",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUEV-26AUG04-T1191.89",
      "question": "Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 be above 1191.89?",
      "description": "Above 1191.89",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 1191.89: Kalshi staff determination based on Truflation's EV Commodity Index value as published at truflation.com/marketplace/ev-index on August 4, 2026, resolved by August 12, 2026.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 is above 1191.89, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source": "Truflation",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 1221.01,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "question_id": "CMX-16BC901885",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "truflation ev commodity"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9PQ88CJM71",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJ9H5KDRH5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUEV-26AUG04-T1201.89",
      "question": "Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 be above 1201.89?",
      "description": "Above 1201.89",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1201.89: Kalshi staff determination based on Truflation's EV Commodity Index value as published at truflation.com/marketplace/ev-index on August 4, 2026, resolved by August 12, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 is above 1201.89, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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    },
    {
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      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUEV-26AUG04-T1211.89",
      "question": "Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 be above 1211.89?",
      "description": "Above 1211.89",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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        "source_of_record": "Truflation",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9Z8PJSWD74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJ9H5KDRH5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUEV-26AUG04-T1221.89",
      "question": "Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 be above 1221.89?",
      "description": "Above 1221.89",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1221.89: Kalshi staff determination based on Truflation's EV Commodity Index value as published at truflation.com/marketplace/ev-index on August 4, 2026, resolved by August 12, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 is above 1221.89, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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    },
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJ9H5KDRH5",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUEV-26AUG04-T1231.89",
      "question": "Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 be above 1231.89?",
      "description": "Above 1231.89",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1231.89: Kalshi staff determination based on Truflation's EV Commodity Index value as published at truflation.com/marketplace/ev-index on August 4, 2026, resolved by August 12, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 is above 1231.89, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Truflation",
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        "source_citation": "https://truflation.com/marketplace/ev-index",
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        "source_of_record": "Truflation",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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    },
    {
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      "question": "Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 be above 1241.89?",
      "description": "Above 1241.89",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1241.89: Kalshi staff determination based on Truflation's EV Commodity Index value as published at truflation.com/marketplace/ev-index on August 4, 2026, resolved by August 12, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 is above 1241.89, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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