{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5Z4K6WBZ9",
  "slug": "kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31",
  "question": "Will someone leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-administration",
    "staff-turnover",
    "us-politics",
    "cabinet-exits",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether named Trump administration officials depart their roles before January 1, 2027. All 36 markets are structured identically as binary departure questions across cabinet secretaries, senior advisers, and agency heads. All markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination against public records of officeholder status. Resolution occurs on January 7, 2027, giving a brief settlement window after the December 31, 2026 close.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-90KY3Y6L01",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8WR134PTP3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5Z4K6WBZ9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KPAT",
      "question": "Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?",
      "description": "Kash Patel",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kash Patel: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual departs from the Attorney General position before January 7, 2027, based on public reporting and official announcements.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nKash Patel must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. \n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.41,
      "implied_probability": 0.41,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1715.3989999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 452389.7155,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "director",
        "fbi",
        "kash patel",
        "trump-admin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-90KY3Y6L01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5Z4K6WBZ9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PBON",
      "question": "Will Pam Bondi leaves Attorney General in before 2027?",
      "description": "Pam Bondi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Pam Bondi: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual departs from the Attorney General position before January 7, 2027, based on public reporting and official announcements.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-07T18:17:20Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pam Bondi leaves as Attorney General before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPam Bondi must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. \n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 573882.21,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "attorney-general",
        "doj",
        "pam bondi",
        "trump-admin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C67KDPQC29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5Z4K6WBZ9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG",
      "question": "Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?",
      "description": "Pete Hegseth",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Pete Hegseth: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual departs from the Attorney General position before January 7, 2027, based on public reporting and official announcements.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPete Hegseth must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. \n\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to \"No.\"\n\n\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "volume_24h_usd": 804.6101,
      "volume_total_usd": 156608.81480000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "defense",
        "pete hegseth",
        "secretary",
        "trump-admin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WDR452CMT8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5Z4K6WBZ9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TGAB",
      "question": "Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence in before 2027?",
      "description": "Tulsi Gabbard",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Tulsi Gabbard: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual departs from the Attorney General position before January 7, 2027, based on public reporting and official announcements.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tulsi Gabbard leaves as Director of National Intelligence before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTulsi Gabbard must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. \n\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to \"No.\"\n\n\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.995,
      "implied_probability": 0.995,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 685001.15315,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dni",
        "intelligence",
        "trump-admin",
        "tulsi gabbard"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BYYB3KFMQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5Z4K6WBZ9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-RFK",
      "question": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027?",
      "description": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual departs from the Attorney General position before January 7, 2027, based on public reporting and official announcements.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves as HHS Secretary before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRobert F. Kennedy Jr. must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. \n\n\nIf the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to \"No.\"\n\n\n\nFor \"leave,\" cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "person",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government records and registries",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "question": "Will Amy Gleason leaves Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will Steve Witkoff leaves Special Envoy to the Middle East in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will Mike Huckabee leaves Ambassador to Israel in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will JD Vance leaves Vice President of the United States in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will Brooke Rollins leaves Secretary of Agriculture in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will Doug Burgum leaves Secretary of the Interior in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer leaves Secretary of Labor in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will Doug Collins leaves Secretary of Veterans Affairs in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will John Ratcliffe leaves Director of the CIA in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will Rodney Scott leaves CBP Commissioner in before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will Steven Cheung be out as White House Communications Director before 2027?",
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