{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
  "slug": "kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31",
  "question": "Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (below threshold)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "below",
    "implied_band": [
      33,
      40
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 33,
        "prob": 19
      },
      {
        "threshold": 34,
        "prob": 25
      },
      {
        "threshold": 35,
        "prob": 45
      },
      {
        "threshold": 36,
        "prob": 54
      },
      {
        "threshold": 37,
        "prob": 71
      },
      {
        "threshold": 38,
        "prob": 78
      },
      {
        "threshold": 39,
        "prob": 88
      },
      {
        "threshold": 40,
        "prob": 99
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-approval",
    "us-politics",
    "polling-metrics",
    "2026",
    "approval-tracking"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the lowest approval rating Donald Trump reaches through January 2027. Kalshi structures this as discrete strike thresholds, each asking whether the VoteHub polling aggregate crosses below a specific level. The tiered strikes from 40% down to 33% collectively imply a probability distribution over the floor of Trump's approval. Resolution depends on Kalshi staff determination using VoteHub polling data over the December 2025 to December 2026 observation window.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DW1J1NPHS7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JTHHT57LD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-40",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 40% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Below 40%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 40%: VoteHub polling data during the December 2025 to December 2026 period determines whether the named official's approval rating falls below 36%, per Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-15T21:37:11Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 40%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<polling organization>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<polling organization>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "VoteHub",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "VoteHub",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.988,
      "implied_probability": 0.988,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 15041.1,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "donald trump approval",
        "trump",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-387L3DVPP9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-39",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 39% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Below 39%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 39%: VoteHub polling data during the December 2025 to December 2026 period determines whether the named official's approval rating falls below 36%, per Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-21T16:01:47Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 39%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<polling organization>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "<polling organization>",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13085.12,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 39,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "donald trump approval",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V6C09QFZ85",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-38",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 38% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Below 38%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 38%: VoteHub polling data during the December 2025 to December 2026 period determines whether the named official's approval rating falls below 36%, per Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 38%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<polling organization>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<polling organization>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 439.6707,
      "volume_total_usd": 21330.010800000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 38,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "donald trump approval",
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      ],
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          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6C01B5LC79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-37",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 37% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Below 37%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 37%: VoteHub polling data during the December 2025 to December 2026 period determines whether the named official's approval rating falls below 36%, per Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 37%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<polling organization>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<polling organization>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "VoteHub",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "VoteHub",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "volume_24h_usd": 138.5804,
      "volume_total_usd": 13440.6519,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 37,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "donald trump approval",
        "trump",
        "us-politics"
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          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SL3HW1R6J3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-36",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Below 36%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 36%: VoteHub polling data during the December 2025 to December 2026 period determines whether the named official's approval rating falls below 36%, per Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 36%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<polling organization>",
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        "caps": [
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      "last_price": 0.26,
      "implied_probability": 0.26,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12619.986600000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 36,
      "question_id": null,
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        "donald trump approval",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2Q3P61VXM8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-35",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Below 35%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 35%: VoteHub polling data during the December 2025 to December 2026 period determines whether the named official's approval rating falls below 36%, per Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 35%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<polling organization>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "<polling organization>",
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        "caps": [
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 35,
      "question_id": null,
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        "approval",
        "donald trump approval",
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        "us-politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7QNYZ2Y403",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-34",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Below 34%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 34%: VoteHub polling data during the December 2025 to December 2026 period determines whether the named official's approval rating falls below 36%, per Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 34%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<polling organization>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<polling organization>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "VoteHub",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "VoteHub",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4215.0191,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 34,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "donald trump approval",
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DW1J1NPHS7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-33",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Below 33%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 33%: VoteHub polling data during the December 2025 to December 2026 period determines whether the named official's approval rating falls below 36%, per Kalshi staff determination by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 33%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "<polling organization>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "<polling organization>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      },
      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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