{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33",
  "slug": "kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31",
  "question": "Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (above threshold)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      43
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 43,
        "prob": 15
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      {
        "threshold": 44,
        "prob": 9
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      {
        "threshold": 45,
        "prob": 6
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      {
        "threshold": 46,
        "prob": 9
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      {
        "threshold": 47,
        "prob": 3
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      {
        "threshold": 48,
        "prob": 7
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      {
        "threshold": 49,
        "prob": 1
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      {
        "threshold": 50,
        "prob": 6
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  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-approval",
    "us-politics",
    "polling-metrics",
    "2027",
    "sentiment-tracking"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Trump's approval rating will breach discrete percentage thresholds at any point between December 2025 and December 2026. Kalshi structures this as eight binary strike levels ranging from 43% to 50%, each resolved independently via Kalshi staff determination using VoteHub polling data. Higher strikes imply lower probability, forming an implied ceiling distribution across the approval range. The authoritative polling source is VoteHub, not any platform-internal aggregator.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8CH464J2Z6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.065,
    "implied_probability": 0.065,
    "as_of": "2026-09-05T10:00:37.638Z"
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-43",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 43% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Above 43%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 43%: VoteHub polling data on the named candidate's approval rating during December 2025 through December 2026 determines resolution, verified by Kalshi staff by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 43%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.065,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-44",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 44% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 44%: VoteHub polling data on the named candidate's approval rating during December 2025 through December 2026 determines resolution, verified by Kalshi staff by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 44%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 45% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Above 45%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 45%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.045,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-46",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 46% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Above 46%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 46%: VoteHub polling data on the named candidate's approval rating during December 2025 through December 2026 determines resolution, verified by Kalshi staff by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 46%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 47% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 48% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 48%: VoteHub polling data on the named candidate's approval rating during December 2025 through December 2026 determines resolution, verified by Kalshi staff by January 7, 2027.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 48%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 49% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 49%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 50% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 50%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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