{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33",
  "slug": "kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31",
  "question": "Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (above threshold)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      43
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    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 43,
        "prob": 28
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      {
        "threshold": 44,
        "prob": 20
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      {
        "threshold": 45,
        "prob": 18
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      {
        "threshold": 46,
        "prob": 13
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      {
        "threshold": 47,
        "prob": 6
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      {
        "threshold": 48,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 49,
        "prob": 7
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      {
        "threshold": 50,
        "prob": 4
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    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-approval",
    "us-politics",
    "polling-metrics",
    "2027",
    "sentiment-tracking"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Trump's approval rating breaches discrete percentage thresholds at any point through December 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of eight strike thresholds from 43% to 50%, pricing the probability of each level being touched. A participant can read the implied distribution of approval-rating outcomes across the full range. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using VoteHub polling data as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8CH464J2Z6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.22,
    "implied_probability": 0.22
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 43% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Above 43%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 43%: VoteHub polling data on the named candidate's approval rating during December 2025 through December 2026 determines resolution, verified by Kalshi staff by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 43%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
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        "grade": "C",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.22,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 43,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 44% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 45% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 45%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 46% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Above 46%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 46%: VoteHub polling data on the named candidate's approval rating during December 2025 through December 2026 determines resolution, verified by Kalshi staff by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 46%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 47% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Above 47%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 47%: VoteHub polling data on the named candidate's approval rating during December 2025 through December 2026 determines resolution, verified by Kalshi staff by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 47%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 48% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 48%: VoteHub polling data on the named candidate's approval rating during December 2025 through December 2026 determines resolution, verified by Kalshi staff by January 7, 2027.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 48%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 49% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
      "description": "Above 49%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 49%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 50% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 50%: VoteHub polling data on the named candidate's approval rating during December 2025 through December 2026 determines resolution, verified by Kalshi staff by January 7, 2027.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 50%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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