{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D0MJMVWG14",
  "slug": "kxtrumpbearcasecombo-27dec",
  "question": "Will 2026 be a bad year for Trump?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-2026",
    "us-politics",
    "political-narrative",
    "bear-case",
    "subjective-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether a specified bear-case economic scenario for the Trump administration materializes in 2026. Resolution depends on Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation monthly reports meeting defined threshold conditions. Kalshi staff determination applies at resolution on December 31, 2027. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast exists.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8Y11TRF763",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.099,
    "implied_probability": 0.099
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8Y11TRF763",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D0MJMVWG14",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPBEARCASECOMBO-27DEC-26",
      "question": "Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?",
      "description": "Yes",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation monthly reports determine whether specified bear-case economic conditions occur during 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.\n\nEach component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:\n\n- \"Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%\" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD\n- \"Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?\" uses CONTROL\n- \"Will the U.S. enter a recession?\" uses NBERRECSS\n- \"Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?\" uses ECONSTAT\n\nFor economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.\n\nAdditional specifications:\n\n- POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period\n- CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House on Feb 1, 2027\n- NBERRECSS - requires two consecutive quarters in which the the most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes of quarterly US real GDP are negative",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.099,
      "implied_probability": 0.099,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.9104,
      "volume_total_usd": 20421.33489,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "politics",
        "trump",
        "trump bear case"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-D0MJMVWG14",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}