{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W81X57LB82",
  "slug": "kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec",
  "question": "Will 2026 be a successful year for Trump?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-2026",
    "us-politics",
    "bull-case-scenario",
    "political-narrative",
    "performance-assessment"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether a defined \"bull case\" scenario for Trump materializes across 2026. Kalshi staff determine resolution using Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data and related indicators. No cross-platform structural contrast exists; only one market is listed. Resolution occurs via Kalshi staff determination at the close of 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RQF084T904",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.049,
    "implied_probability": 0.049
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RQF084T904",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W81X57LB82",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPBULLCASECOMBO-27DEC-26",
      "question": "Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026?",
      "description": "Yes",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination of whether the bull case for Trump occurs in 2026, informed by Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data and related economic indicators.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If **ALL** of the following occur:\n\n1. Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND\n2. Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND\n3. U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND\n4. The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026\n\nthen the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.\n\nEach component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:\n\n- \"Will Trump's VoteHub approval rating rise above 48% in 2026?\" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD\n- \"Will Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms?\" uses CONTROL\n- \"Will U.S. GDP grow by more than 5% in any quarter from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 (inclusive)?\" uses LGDP\n- \"Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stay below 5% in 2026?\" uses ECONSTAT\n\nFor economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.\n\nAdditional specifications: POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period; CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House and President Pro Tempore of the Senate on Feb 1, 2027; LGDP - based on real GDP, quarter-over-quarter percent change, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR)",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.049,
      "implied_probability": 0.049,
      "volume_24h_usd": 25.83623,
      "volume_total_usd": 25564.6769,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "politics",
        "trump",
        "trump bull case",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-W81X57LB82",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}