{
  "_notice": {
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
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    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PLZF299170",
  "slug": "kxtrumpfire-27",
  "question": "How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-cabinet",
    "us-politics",
    "personnel-changes",
    "quantitative-prediction",
    "2027-resolution"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These six Kalshi markets price discrete count thresholds for Trump Cabinet firings before January 1, 2027. Each binary contract resolves at a specific integer level, from zero to five. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the full range of outcomes. Kalshi staff determination relies on White House official announcements as the authoritative source.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JCF15LK6H2",
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "question": "Will Trump fire 0 Cabinet members before 2027?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If President Trump has announced that he asked for the resignation of, or fired, exactly 0 non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement will be considered to be made by President Trump if it is announced on President Trump's personal or official social media accounts, made by President Trump in a video or audio format, a direct quote from President Trump in written reporting, or otherwise written or released directly from President Trump. The withdrawal of a request for resignation, or the reversal of a decision to fire, does not negate the initial request for resignation or decision to fire for the purposes of this Contract. For the purposes of this Contract, it does not matter if the Cabinet member does not actually resign, is removed, or otherwise leaves the position. \n\nFor purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. An \"acting\" member of the Cabinet is not included.",
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            "name": "White House",
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            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
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      "question": "Will Trump fire 1 Cabinet members before 2027?",
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      "status": "open",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPFIRE-27-2",
      "question": "Will Trump fire 2 Cabinet members before 2027?",
      "description": "2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If President Trump has announced that he asked for the resignation of, or fired, exactly 2 non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement will be considered to be made by President Trump if it is announced on President Trump's personal or official social media accounts, made by President Trump in a video or audio format, a direct quote from President Trump in written reporting, or otherwise written or released directly from President Trump. The withdrawal of a request for resignation, or the reversal of a decision to fire, does not negate the initial request for resignation or decision to fire for the purposes of this Contract. For the purposes of this Contract, it does not matter if the Cabinet member does not actually resign, is removed, or otherwise leaves the position. \n\n\nFor purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. An \"acting\" member of the Cabinet is not included.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.13,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 2.08,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HV1G3JPYP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PLZF299170",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPFIRE-27-3",
      "question": "Will Trump fire 3 Cabinet members before 2027?",
      "description": "3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "3: White House official announcements by January 1, 2027, 15:00 UTC determine whether the named official was removed from the listed Cabinet position before that deadline, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If President Trump has announced that he asked for the resignation of, or fired, exactly 3 non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement will be considered to be made by President Trump if it is announced on President Trump's personal or official social media accounts, made by President Trump in a video or audio format, a direct quote from President Trump in written reporting, or otherwise written or released directly from President Trump. The withdrawal of a request for resignation, or the reversal of a decision to fire, does not negate the initial request for resignation or decision to fire for the purposes of this Contract. For the purposes of this Contract, it does not matter if the Cabinet member does not actually resign, is removed, or otherwise leaves the position. \n\n\nFor purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. An \"acting\" member of the Cabinet is not included.",
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        "grade": "C",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SGD3JW2323",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PLZF299170",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPFIRE-27-4",
      "question": "Will Trump fire 4 Cabinet members before 2027?",
      "description": "4",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "4: White House official announcements by January 1, 2027, 15:00 UTC determine whether the named official was removed from the listed Cabinet position before that deadline, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If President Trump has announced that he asked for the resignation of, or fired, exactly 4 non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement will be considered to be made by President Trump if it is announced on President Trump's personal or official social media accounts, made by President Trump in a video or audio format, a direct quote from President Trump in written reporting, or otherwise written or released directly from President Trump. The withdrawal of a request for resignation, or the reversal of a decision to fire, does not negate the initial request for resignation or decision to fire for the purposes of this Contract. For the purposes of this Contract, it does not matter if the Cabinet member does not actually resign, is removed, or otherwise leaves the position. \n\n\nFor purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. An \"acting\" member of the Cabinet is not included.",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PLZF299170",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPFIRE-27-5",
      "question": "Will Trump fire 5 Cabinet members before 2027?",
      "description": "5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "5: White House official announcements by January 1, 2027, 15:00 UTC determine whether the named official was removed from the listed Cabinet position before that deadline, resolved by Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If President Trump has announced that he asked for the resignation of, or fired, exactly 5 non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement will be considered to be made by President Trump if it is announced on President Trump's personal or official social media accounts, made by President Trump in a video or audio format, a direct quote from President Trump in written reporting, or otherwise written or released directly from President Trump. The withdrawal of a request for resignation, or the reversal of a decision to fire, does not negate the initial request for resignation or decision to fire for the purposes of this Contract. For the purposes of this Contract, it does not matter if the Cabinet member does not actually resign, is removed, or otherwise leaves the position. \n\n\nFor purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. An \"acting\" member of the Cabinet is not included.",
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    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}